2026 – Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 16

Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -58

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 19

VIX: 16

52 week highs (US common stocks): 174

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX Uptrend

$QQQ: Uptrend

$SPY: No trend

$RSP: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: Uptrend

$SQQQ: Downtrend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Downtrend

$USO: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

None

2%- sectors yesterday:

$IBB -2.17%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

Leading – $IBB $XLK
Lagging – $XLF $XLB

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

Leading – $SMH $HACK
Lagging – $TAN $IYT

Bitcoin: 86k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

THEME 1: Agentic AI CPU & Compute Squeeze:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
INTC	Intel Corporation	Semis – CPUs/Foundry	~$620B	~+220%	Server CPU shortage; reported 10% CPU price hikes; +17% this week	Hold; ~$115
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.	Semis – CPUs/GPUs	~$1.0T	~+185%	10% price hike from Q4; crossed $1T market cap; EPYC share gains	Strong Buy; ~$617
ARM	Arm Holdings plc (ADR)	Semis – CPU IP / AGI CPU	~$320B	~+170%	>$2B AGI CPU customer commitments FY27–28; server royalties doubling	Moderate Buy; ~$306
QCOM	QUALCOMM Incorporated	Semis – CPUs/Data Center	n/v	n/v	Amazon AI data-center deal; +9% on the Muse CPU trade	n/v
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	Semis – GPUs/Grace CPUs	~$5.5T	~+21%	More agents means more compute; SOX +7% since Muse	n/v
TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR)	Semis – Foundry	~$2.2T	~+40%	Wafer price increases flowing through to chip prices; fabs for every CPU designer	n/v
AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	Semis – Custom Silicon/Networking	n/v	n/v	Hyperscaler custom chips; recent price-target raises	n/v
MU	Micron Technology, Inc.	Semis – Memory (DRAM/NAND)	~$1.2T	~+280%	FQ4 earnings Sep 30; Citi models DRAM prices +20% q/q	Buy; Citi PT $1,300
SNDK	Sandisk Corporation	Semis – NAND/Enterprise SSD	~$260B	~+650%	Rosenblatt initiates at Buy; SSD demand from AI inference	Buy; Rosenblatt PT $2,400
DELL	Dell Technologies Inc.	Hardware – AI Servers	~$380B	~+345%	Demand for CPU-dense servers; +5% Friday	n/v
SMCI	Super Micro Computer, Inc.	Hardware – AI Servers	n/v	n/v	Rack-scale server demand	n/v
HPE	Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.	Hardware – Servers	n/v	n/v	Enterprise server refresh	n/v
MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	Semis – Custom Silicon/Optics	n/v	n/v	Custom CPU/accelerator programs	n/v
AMKR	Amkor Technology, Inc.	Semis – Advanced Packaging	n/v	n/v	Packaging is a limit on AGI CPU supply	n/v
LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	Semicap Equipment	n/v	n/v	SEMICON West; chip equipment shortages flagged by Citi	n/v
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Broad semis basket	–
SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Mega-cap semis weighted	–
PSI	Invesco Semiconductors ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Equal-weight-style semis	–
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X	ETF (3x leveraged)	–	n/v	Tactical/leveraged	–

THEME 2: Agentic AI Platforms & Agent-Commerce Winners:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
META	Meta Platforms, Inc.	Comm Services – Interactive Media	~$1.9T	~+14%	Muse is the #1 app; Truist sees ~$28.5B in revenue by 2030	Buy; recent PTs $750–$860
MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	Software – Cloud/Copilot	~$3.8T	~+7%	Stifel upgrade; Copilot at ~30M seats	Buy; Stifel PT $575
SHOP	Shopify Inc.	Software – E-commerce/Payments	~$185B	~−10%	Muse checkout via Shop Pay; Stifel sees a Q4–2027 boost	Buy; ~$173
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc. (Class A)	Comm Services – Search/Cloud	~$4.2T	~+10%	Gemini agents; Googlebook launch	n/v
AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	Consumer Disc./Cloud (AWS)	~$2.7T	~+8%	AWS benefits, but Amazon blocked Muse on its store (mixed)	n/v
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	Software – Cloud Infrastructure	~$390B	~−30%	Trending; cloud capacity for agents; laggard that could rebound	n/v
TWLO	Twilio Inc.	Software – Communications APIs	n/v	n/v	Morgan Stanley: agents increase messaging volumes	n/v
NET	Cloudflare, Inc.	Software – Edge/Security	n/v	n/v	Managing and securing agent web traffic	n/v
PLTR	Palantir Technologies Inc.	Software – AI Platforms	n/v	n/v	AIP enterprise agents	n/v
NOW	ServiceNow, Inc.	Software – Workflow	n/v	n/v	Enterprise agent workflows	n/v
CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	Software – CRM	n/v	n/v	Agentforce adoption	n/v
SNOW	Snowflake Inc.	Software – Data Cloud	n/v	n/v	Data layer that agents query	n/v
DDOG	Datadog, Inc.	Software – Observability	n/v	n/v	Monitoring of AI agents	n/v
OKTA	Okta, Inc.	Software – Identity	n/v	n/v	Agent identity and authorisation	n/v
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.	Entertainment – Ticketing	n/v	n/v	Ticketmaster is a Muse launch partner	n/v
MAGS	Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF	ETF	–	~+10%	Mega-cap AI platforms	–
XLC	Communication Services Select Sector SPDR	ETF	–	n/v	META/GOOGL heavy	–
IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Software rebound	–
AIQ	Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Broad AI	–

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: Small increase in positive breadth readings yesterday and some tech names trying to go while megacap tech had a generally weak day, looking like a green open yesterday was a day 1 in some names, see if we get any follow through or just more chop.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$AMKR
$PLTR
$TQQQ
$SOXL
$AMZN
$IONQ
$DRAM
$RGTI
$FCEL
$MRVL
$META

SA 01/10/2026 – Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 15