Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 41
Fridays market: Money entering the market – Normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 4
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 44
VIX: 26
52 week highs (US common stocks): 233
Seasonality:
The historical case: The post-midterm window is the cycle’s strongest stretch. From the 31 October close of a midterm year to the following 30 April, the S&P 500 has been positive in all 19 cycles since 1950, averaging nearly 15%.
The base rate is strong. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.7% gain in November, tied with December for the best month according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In midterm years the Almanac ranks November as the second best month for the DJIA and S&P 500. November also starts the “Best Six Months”. Small caps come into favour in November but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year.
The odds favour a positive month, and November–April has the best risk/reward of the four-year cycle. But 2026 starts closer to the highs than most midterm years. Expect smaller gains than the averages, and leadership may sit outside mega-cap tech. A tech-led drawdown in November is entirely possible and wouldn’t break the pattern. History says weak patches before or around the vote have usually been bought.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$RSP: Downtrend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Uptrend
$TLT: Uptrend
$USO: Downtrend
$TNX: Downtrend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: Downtrend
2%+ sectors Friday:
- $SMH +3.62%
- $XTL +3.44%
- $TAN +3.38%
2%- sectors Friday:
- None
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLV $XLP
- Lagging – $XLI $XLK
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $RTH $TLT
- Lagging – $HACK $SMH
Bitcoin: 74k ish
Current market themes:
Theme 1: Blue Wave Clean Energy and Solar Rebound
Catalyst: Investors expect Congress to stop rolling back clean-energy support. First Solar jumped 9.6% and Enphase rose 10.3% on 4 Nov. Analysts said the result potentially reduces the risk of further political interference with renewable energy incentives, and renewables are also benefiting from a rotation away from AI-related stocks.
Sectors: Solar manufacturing, trackers and inverters, residential solar, storage, renewable power producers and yieldcos
Conviction: Medium. The catalyst is real, but Trump would retain the power to veto legislation, limiting how dramatically federal policy could change.
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | First Solar, Inc. | Tech / Solar modules | $18.75B | -22% (Sep) | US manufacturing and 45X credits; $500M buyback | Buy (est.); Mizuho PT $328 |
| NXT | Nextpower Inc. | Tech / Solar trackers | $11.99B | n/a | Utility-scale demand; largest TAN weight | Buy (est.) |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy, Inc. | Tech / Microinverters | $4.26B | +13% (Sep) | Blue-wave policy relief; residential recovery | Hold (est.) |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | Tech / Inverters | $1.99B | +19% (Sep) | Up as much as 12% after the election | Hold (est.) |
| RUN | Sunrun Inc. | Industrials / Residential solar | $1.82B | n/a | Residential credit outlook | Hold/Buy (est.) |
| SHLS | Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | Tech / eBOS | $1.26B | n/a | Utility-scale buildout | Hold (est.) |
| ARRY | Array Technologies, Inc. | Tech / Solar trackers | $513M | n/a | Tracker orderbook | Hold (est.) |
| CSIQ | Canadian Solar Inc. | Tech / Modules and storage | $663M | n/a | Up 7%+ after the election | Hold (est.) |
| TE | T1 Energy Inc. | Tech / US module manufacturing | n/a | n/a | Up 11% after the election | Buy (est.) |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Renewables | n/a | n/a | Named among election winners; benefits from lower yields | Buy (est.) |
| CWEN | Clearway Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Renewable yieldco | n/a | n/a | Contracted renewables; benefits from lower rates | Buy (est.) |
| HASI | HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital | Financials / Climate finance | n/a | n/a | Clean-energy financing pipeline | Buy (est.) |
| BEP | Brookfield Renewable Partners | Utilities / Renewables | n/a | n/a | Global renewables rally | Buy (est.) |
| FLNC | Fluence Energy, Inc. | Industrials / Battery storage | n/a | n/a | Storage incentives | Hold (est.) |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Utilities / Renewables developer | n/a | n/a | Renewables pipeline | Hold (est.) |
| ETFs | TAN, ICLN, PBW, QCLN |
Theme 2: Medicaid and ACA Healthcare Services (Hospitals and Managed Care)
Catalyst: The election raised hopes for healthcare-friendly policy. Centene climbed over 8% and Molina about 6%, while HCA, Tenet and Universal Health Services gained between 6% and 8%. Analysts also said the outcome could improve the prospects for extending enhanced ACA subsidies.
Sectors: Hospital operators, Medicaid and ACA managed care, behavioural health, surgical centres
Conviction: High to Medium. This is the clearest policy beneficiary, and healthcare was flat for the week despite the selloff. The risk is that Medicaid relief doesn’t materialize or is replaced by tougher hospital reimbursement rules.
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCA | HCA Healthcare, Inc. | Healthcare / Hospitals | $101.6B | ~+6% (pre-election) | Up 8.6% after the election; Medicaid exposure | Buy (est.) |
| THC | Tenet Healthcare Corporation | Healthcare / Hospitals | $21.6B | ~+41% (pre-election) | ACA subsidy extension | Buy (est.) |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | Healthcare / Hospitals and behavioural | $11.0B | ~-13% (pre-election) | Laggard catch-up; state-directed payments | Buy (est.) |
| ARDT | Ardent Health, Inc. | Healthcare / Hospitals | $1.73B | n/a | Hospital rerating | Buy (est.) |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare Company | Healthcare / Behavioural health | $2.93B | n/a | Medicaid-heavy revenue mix | Hold (est.) |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Healthcare / Surgical centres | $2.04B | n/a | Volume recovery | Buy (est.) |
| CNC | Centene Corporation | Healthcare / Medicaid MCO | $34.7B | +66% (30 Oct) | Largest Medicaid and ACA insurer | Hold (est.) |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare, Inc. | Healthcare / Medicaid MCO | $10.9B | n/a | Most exposed to swing-state Medicaid members | Hold (est.) |
| ELV | Elevance Health, Inc. | Healthcare / Managed care | $95.1B | ~+21% | Medicaid margins past the trough | Buy (est.) |
| OSCR | Oscar Health, Inc. | Healthcare / ACA insurer | $9.56B | n/a | Most direct ACA-subsidy play | Hold (est.) |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group | Healthcare / Managed care | $375.3B | ~+30% | Sector leader; Medicare Advantage rates | Buy (est.) |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | Healthcare / Medicare Advantage | $50.7B | n/a | Medicare Advantage rate tailwind | Hold (est.) |
| CVS | CVS Health Corporation | Healthcare / Insurance and pharmacy | $119.6B | n/a | Aetna margin recovery | Buy (est.) |
| CI | The Cigna Group | Healthcare / Managed care | $81.1B | n/a | Lower Medicaid exposure (defensive) | Buy (est.) |
| ALHC | Alignment Healthcare, Inc. | Healthcare / Medicare Advantage | $1.67B | n/a | Medicare Advantage growth | Buy (est.) |
| ETFs | IHF, XLV |
What type of market are we in: Bearish, all indices in downtrends. Markets need to reset and charts setup.
Key things for this week: This is a quieter earnings week, but a fragile one after last Thursday’s AI and chip sell-off, and the key event is Tuesday’s October CPI at 13:30 UK. It will show no year-on-year rate because of the 2025 shutdown, so markets will trade the month-on-month figure (consensus around 0.2–0.3%). It’s the last CPI before the Fed’s 9 December meeting, where futures had priced roughly a 65% chance of a hike. On earnings, Monday brings KKR and Barrick in the morning, then Take-Two (ten days before GTA VI), Skydance, Occidental, Rocket Lab and The Trade Desk after the close. Tuesday has Vodafone, Sea Limited and TransDigm before the open, then CoreWeave in the evening as the first AI-sentiment test. Wednesday is Veterans Day: stocks are open, bonds are shut, and volume will be light. Thursday brings UK Q3 GDP and Nebius in the morning, then the week’s headline reports, Cisco and Applied Materials, after the US close (calls at 21:30 UK). Friday closes with PPI at 13:30 and the big Japanese banks. Next week’s major event is Nvidia on Tuesday 17 November, alongside Disney and Home Depot.
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No, all indexes in downtrnds.
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: RR typically not there after big flush 20% bearish study over 100
Should I be trading: Only short term bounce trades using 5m ROE
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment
Last Updated on November 9, 2026 by PeteStilgoe