Catalyst / setup – Gapped down below the 200 sma on earnings and setup a WSS around the 200 sma.
The revenue miss ends a run of clean beats and happened against a valuation (~46x forward P/E pre-print) that assumed continued flawless execution — that vulnerability is now visible in real numbers, not just in theory.
Thesis looking to enter around the 200 sma short for a WSS setup
Result – As you can see from the 5min chart above, I entered on hope, there was nothing in the 5 min chart action for me to enter the market with a short trade, I didnt let it set up it was just a hope trade.
As I didnt have a hard stop only a mental one I ended up closing out at 249.86 from approx a 250% loss.
Takeways –
I entered on hope there was no short entry on the 5min chart, the stock closed at highs of the day approx +7%, when I entered the stock was above a rising 10 sma with MACD on the 5 min chart, not a signal to short.
I was exhausted mentally & physically the only reason I can think of for not waiting for the setup to trigger and not sizing my position correctly so I can only lose max 100%, instead I lost 250%.
The 200sma on the daily is still in a uptrend and the stock hugged the upper BB on the 5min chart sign of a strong stock making a move.
No re-entry after the stop-out, despite wanting one: “even though I wanted the trade to work short I never re-entered even though I wanted to, I recognised the strong trend up and didn’t make the same mistake again, the short trade was not there.”
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – very high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 17
Stocks above 40PMA: 53
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 302
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
$JETS +4.44%
$TAN +3.87%
$IGV +3.00%
$XTL +2.73%
$HACK +2.68%
$XLI +1.85%
$RTH +1.56%
$XLK +1.53%
$KRE +1.31%
$IYT +1.17%
$XLB +1.15%
1%- sectors yesterday:
$XLe -1.28%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLK $IBB
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 63k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Some
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Maybe
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain although we got a 500+ bullish breadth day yesterday with broad participation so could be the start of something
Fridays market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -14
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 313
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors Friday:
$XLY +3.29%
$RTH +2.96%
$XTL +1.57%
$IGV +1.36%
$HACK +1.20%
$XLE +1.00%
1%- sectors Friday:
$XLB -2.34%
$IBB -1.87%
$JETS -1.26%
$TAN -1.02%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLK $XLI
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 62k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Catalyst / setup – WSS, report advert rollout not performing as expected on Monday which caused the 1st leg down allowing for WSS setup to form.
WSS on daily reversed at 50% reclaim & stalled on the 5 min chart which was my entry
Result – Still running, scaled 50% @ 436.15 and another 50% @ 431.59, scaled 66% of runner @ 400.85 on 27/07/2026 making xxx% profit approx with free runner left on
Catalyst / setup – SIP (stock in play): Gapping down 9% after earnings, the earnings we’re actually quite good but skewed by “The miss was driven by $2.40 billion in charges “related to legal proceedings” and $1.18 billion in severance tied to the May 2026 layoff of ~8,000 employees.”
“The headline “miss” is almost entirely an optics function of two disclosed, non-recurring charges. Strip them out and the quarter’s underlying profitability would have modestly beaten consensus. This is a textbook case of EPS optics requiring decomposition before drawing a conclusion about operational deterioration.”
Based on the above low risk entry expecting it to get bought. Catalyst news related gap down probably over done.
Result – Still running, scaled 50% after 1% move at @ 535.48 and another 50% @ 538.40, didn’t reach 2% scale by the close but as 24 hour market scaled early as after hours markets can be choppy. Free runner still running trade currently at approx 120% profit.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -14
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 313
Seasonality: July in a midterm year tends to be choppy-to-soft rather than the seasonally strong July you’d see in other cycle years — it’s typically still inside the corrective phase, with the actual bottom more often forming in the August–October window, just ahead of the midterm elections themselves.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
$SMH +6.88%
$XLK +5.50%
$TAN +4.53%
$XTL +2.85%
$JETS +2.29%
$HACK +1.58%
$IGV +1.02%
1%- sectors yesterday:
$XLP -2.16%
$XLV -1.64%
$IYT -1.03%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLK $XLY
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $HACK $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top 15 + 15 thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
Broad chip exposure; 0.35% ER; top-10 includes AMD/AVGO/MU/TSM/NVDA
—
PSI
Invesco Semiconductors ETF
ETF — Equal-weight semis
ETF
+104%
Momentum/quality factor tilt; overweight memory/equipment vs SMH
—
DRAM
Roundhill Memory ETF
ETF — Memory-focused
ETF
High
SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk concentrated play on HBM cycle
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain with no setups for my style of trading. 20% study now reading normal numbers bullish & bearish. Is this just a short term bounce or something more.
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – very high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -11
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 21
52 week highs (US common stocks): 330
Seasonality: July in a midterm year tends to be choppy-to-soft rather than the seasonally strong July you’d see in other cycle years — it’s typically still inside the corrective phase, with the actual bottom more often forming in the August–October window, just ahead of the midterm elections themselves.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Uptrend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
$XLK +1.66%
$IGV +1.28%
$IBB +1.12%
$TAN +1.09%
1%- sectors yesterday:
$XTL -3.63%
$HACK -1.73%
$IYT -1.39%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLK $XLY
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top 15 + 15 thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
Broad chip exposure; 0.35% ER; top-10 includes AMD/AVGO/MU/TSM/NVDA
—
PSI
Invesco Semiconductors ETF
ETF — Equal-weight semis
ETF
+104%
Momentum/quality factor tilt; overweight memory/equipment vs SMH
—
DRAM
Roundhill Memory ETF
ETF — Memory-focused
ETF
High
SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk concentrated play on HBM cycle
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain with no setups for my style of trading. EP9, WSS & BNS main focus with a strong CAT, 20% study moved to 130 bearish yesterday, reading over 100 normally signals close to a bounce so might get some short term trades in the coming days. $AAPL $AMZN report after the close.
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – high selling & high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 29
Stocks above 40PMA: 53
VIX: 18
52 week highs (US common stocks): 354
Seasonality: July in a midterm year tends to be choppy-to-soft rather than the seasonally strong July you’d see in other cycle years — it’s typically still inside the corrective phase, with the actual bottom more often forming in the August–October window, just ahead of the midterm elections themselves.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Uptrend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
$JETS +2.87%
$XLV +2.36%
$XLP +1.99%
$XLB +1.85%
$RTH +1.75%
$KRE +1.68%
$XLY +1.48%
$XLF +1.27%
$IBB +1.16%
1%- sectors yesterday:
$TAN -4.77%
$SMH -3.45%
$XLK -1.84%
$XLE -1.35%
$XLU -1.32%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLV
Lagging – $XLK $XLE
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $HACK $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 65k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top 15 + 15 thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
Broad chip exposure; 0.35% ER; top-10 includes AMD/AVGO/MU/TSM/NVDA
—
PSI
Invesco Semiconductors ETF
ETF — Equal-weight semis
ETF
+104%
Momentum/quality factor tilt; overweight memory/equipment vs SMH
—
DRAM
Roundhill Memory ETF
ETF — Memory-focused
ETF
High
SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk concentrated play on HBM cycle
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain with no setups for my style of trading. EP9, WSS & BNS main focus with a strong CAT, 20% study moved to 62 bearish yesterday, reading over 100 normally signals close to a bounce. Fed rate decision on today, and $META, $MSFT, $ARM, $QCOM, $HOOD reporting after market close.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 3
Stocks above 40PMA: 53
VIX: 19
52 week highs (US common stocks): 260
Seasonality: July in a midterm year tends to be choppy-to-soft rather than the seasonally strong July you’d see in other cycle years — it’s typically still inside the corrective phase, with the actual bottom more often forming in the August–October window, just ahead of the midterm elections themselves.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Uptrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
$IGV +3.33%
$JETS +2.89%
$RTH +1.49%
$XLP +1.46%
$XLY +1.31%
$XLF +1.01%
1%- sectors yesterday:
$SMH -2.25%
$XLE -2.11%
$XLU -1.32%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLE $XLV
Lagging – $XLK $XLY
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $HACK $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 65k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top 15 + 15 thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
Broad chip exposure; 0.35% ER; top-10 includes AMD/AVGO/MU/TSM/NVDA
—
PSI
Invesco Semiconductors ETF
ETF — Equal-weight semis
ETF
+104%
Momentum/quality factor tilt; overweight memory/equipment vs SMH
—
DRAM
Roundhill Memory ETF
ETF — Memory-focused
ETF
High
SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk concentrated play on HBM cycle
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain, EP9, WSS & BNS main focus with a strong CAT, busy week with a lot of big tech reporting and Fed rate decision on Wednesday.
Fridays market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -20
Stocks above 40PMA: 51
VIX: 19
52 week highs (US common stocks): 205
Seasonality: July in a midterm year tends to be choppy-to-soft rather than the seasonally strong July you’d see in other cycle years — it’s typically still inside the corrective phase, with the actual bottom more often forming in the August–October window, just ahead of the midterm elections themselves.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Uptrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Uptrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors Friday:
$JETS +2.66%
$XLB +1.93%
$HACK +1.30%
$XLP +1.11%
$IGV +1.01%
1%- sectors Friday:
$SMH -3.27%
$TAN -2.97%
$XLK -1.44%
$IBB -1.13%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLE $XLV
Lagging – $XLK $XLY
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $HACK $IYT
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 65k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top 15 + 15 thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
