Catalyst / setup – SoS / momoburst – Circle Internet Group stock surged more than 12% Wednesday as investors returned to crypto-linked equities amid renewed regulatory activity in Washington and a broader rebound across cryptocurrency markets. Trump hosted crypto execs + SEC/CFTC chairs at the White House.
Result – Trade still running, SIP momo burst so closed 50% at 1% move at 76.55 14:33, and another 50% at 2% at 77.06 14:35, runner left on.
Took another 50% off on todays 10% pop and day 3 of a swing 21/08/2026 14:54 @ 91.20
Notes – Didnt know the catalyst when entered the trade but was in my watchlist, was looking powerful pre market and flew out the gate, 75% scaled in 3 mins. Stop raised to just above break even.
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -45
Stocks above 40PMA: 45
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 208
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Uptrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: Downtrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
None
2%- sectors yesterday:
$IBB -2.83%
$RTH -2.55%
$HACK -2.24%
$JETS -2.17%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IBB $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $XLI
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IGV $HACK
Lagging – $TAN $JETS
Bitcoin: Reclaimed the 200sma at 78k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Crypto is working but most other tech isn’t, based on being a Friday unless and exceptional catalyst I will just monitor the market today.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – very high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -17
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 216
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Downtrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
$IBB +6.58%
$XLV +3.51
2%- sectors yesterday:
$HACK -2.59%
$KRE -2.41%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IBB $XLV
Lagging – $XLU $XLP
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IGV $RTH
Lagging – $TAN $JETS
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 69k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -42
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 221
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
None
2%- sectors yesterday:
$SMH -4.09%
$XTL -2.50%
$X;K -2.47%
$TAN -2.06%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLE $IBB
Lagging – $XLU $XLP
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IGV $HACK
Lagging – $IYT $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: A big sell off yesterday due to rate concerns and US paying the most amount paid to borrow money, many charts need to repair yesterdays damage, some still look good but need to see if this is a blip or something bigger.
Catalyst / setup – SIP (stock in play): Gapping down 9% after earnings, the earnings we’re actually quite good but skewed by “The miss was driven by $2.40 billion in charges “related to legal proceedings” and $1.18 billion in severance tied to the May 2026 layoff of ~8,000 employees.”
“The headline “miss” is almost entirely an optics function of two disclosed, non-recurring charges. Strip them out and the quarter’s underlying profitability would have modestly beaten consensus. This is a textbook case of EPS optics requiring decomposition before drawing a conclusion about operational deterioration.”
Based on the above low risk entry expecting it to get bought. Catalyst news related gap down probably over done.
Result – Closed, scaled 50% after 1% move at @ 535.48 and another 50% @ 538.40, didn’t reach 2% scale by the close but as 24 hour market scaled early as after hours markets can be choppy.
Runner stopped 18/08/2026 @ 14:27 at 557.21 approx +120% profit.
Time of entry – Trade 1: 14:54 BST Trade 2: 16:34 BST
21 ADR – 3.07
Catalyst / setup – Large gap down due to credit news in super cycle sector, thought was over done, looking for a recovery. Didn’t happen but this morning opened up +6% so thesis was right but too early.
Result – Trade 1: stopped at 56.08 -100% Trade 2: stopped at 54.80 -100%
Notes – I front ran trade 1 expecting buying to come in at the open in shortly after and got stopped out shortly after. Trade 2 was textbook trade waiting for price to cross above 10 sma with bullish MACD.
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -15
Stocks above 40PMA: 51
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 233
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
None
2%- sectors yesterday:
$JETS -2.25%
$HACK -2.22%
$TAN -2.02%
$IGV -2.01%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLV $XLK
Lagging – $XLU $XLP
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IGV $HACK
Lagging – $TLT $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: A lot of stocks faded yesterday just under or at the 50sma. Yesterday was the 1st day where selling was higher than buying in about 2 weeks but nothing extreme, feels like consolidating before the next leg.
EP9 is main focus with strong cat.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing at the moment
Fridays market: Money entering the market – normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 27
Stocks above 40PMA: 55
VIX: 14
52 week highs (US common stocks): 379
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors Friday:
None
2%- sectors Friday:
$HACK -3.04%
$IGV -2.07%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLV $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $XLY
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IGV $HACK
Lagging – $TLT $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 63k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Bullish
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: 20% study back below 100 at around 50 removing over bought conditions. Focus EP9 with strong cats & SIPs. 3rd day of 10 day breadth ratio closing over 2.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 24
Stocks above 40PMA: 55
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 362
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
$IGV +3.10%
$HACK +2.55%
2%- sectors yesterday:
None
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLV $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $XLY
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $IGV $HACK
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 63k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Bullish
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: 20% study back below 100 removing over bought conditions. Focus EP9 & SIPs with strong cats. 2nd day of 10 day breadth ratio closing over 2.
