Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 36

Fridays market: Money leaving the market – Very high selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: 57

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 45

VIX: 19

52 week highs (US common stocks): 278

Seasonality: 

The historical case: The post-midterm window is the cycle’s strongest stretch. From the 31 October close of a midterm year to the following 30 April, the S&P 500 has been positive in all 19 cycles since 1950, averaging nearly 15%.

The base rate is strong. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.7% gain in November, tied with December for the best month according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In midterm years the Almanac ranks November as the second best month for the DJIA and S&P 500. November also starts the “Best Six Months”. Small caps come into favour in November but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year.

The odds favour a positive month, and November–April has the best risk/reward of the four-year cycle. But 2026 starts closer to the highs than most midterm years. Expect smaller gains than the averages, and leadership may sit outside mega-cap tech. A tech-led drawdown in November is entirely possible and wouldn’t break the pattern. History says weak patches before or around the vote have usually been bought.

Indices:

$SOXX No trend

$QQQ: Downtrend

$SPY: No trend

$RSP: Uptrend

$DIA: No trend

$IWM: Uptrend

$BTC: Downtrend

$SQQQ: No trend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Uptrend

$USO: Uptrend

$TNX: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors Friday:

• $SMH -6.98%
• $HACK -3.94%
• $IGV -3.41%
• $TAN -2.38%
• $JETS -2.04%

2%- sectors Friday:

• None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $XLP
• Lagging – $XLI $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $RTH $TLT
• Lagging – $TAN $SMH

Bitcoin: 77k ish ???

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Theme 1: Healthcare Leadership, GLP-1 and Big Biopharma Rotation

Theme 2: Hormuz Oil Shock and Refining Super-Margins

What type of market are we in: Choppy, rotation out of tech

Key things for this week: Nov 3: US midterm elections, with a possible shift in Congressional control; Nov 6: October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate; and AMD reports on 3 Nov. A tech bounce after AMD would be the main threat to the healthcare rotation.

Are breakouts working: Selectively outside of tech

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No, large down day on Friday expect some kind of bounce short term

Should I be trading: No for my method.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 35

Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – Normal buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: 91

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 48

VIX: 17

52 week highs (US common stocks): 278

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX No trend

$QQQ: No trend

$SPY: No trend

$RSP: Uptrend

$DIA: No trend

$IWM: Uptrend

$BTC: Downtrend

$SQQQ: No trend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Uptrend

$USO: Uptrend

$TNX: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• $XLV +2.40%

2%- sectors yesterday:

• $IGV -3.52%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $XLU
• Lagging – $XLI $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $RTH $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $SMH

Bitcoin: 78k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Theme 1: Oil Shock & Energy Supercycle (Hormuz Supply Squeeze)

Theme 2: AI-Era Cybersecurity & Software Rotation

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Key things for this week: Busy earnings week – This is the heaviest week of the season. The Fed decision, Q3 GDP and the PCE inflation data all land on the same two days as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. 542 companies worth $2bn or more report this week, with Thursday the busiest day at 202 reports. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are worth $10.9 trillion together, about a third of the $31.9 trillion reporting this week. The backdrop is already fragile: last week’s headlines featured stocks hit as AI growth concerns weigh on sentiment.

Are breakouts working: Selectively outside of tech

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively outside of tech, good results getting punished, bad results getting destroyed, not a favourable market, Nov Dec typically most bullish period of the year, will need to see evidence.

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: SIPs, WSS or 5m ROE.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 34

Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – High buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: 57

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 42

VIX: 17

52 week highs (US common stocks): 218

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX No trend

$QQQ: No trend

$SPY: No trend

$RSP: Uptrend

$DIA: Uptrend

$IWM: Uptrend

$BTC: Downtrend

$SQQQ: No trend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Uptrend

$USO: Uptrend

$TNX: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• None

2%- sectors yesterday:

• $TAN -2.48%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $XLU
• Lagging – $XLI $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $IGV $HACK
• Lagging – $JETS $SMH

Bitcoin: 80k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Theme 1: Oil Shock & Energy Supercycle (Hormuz Supply Squeeze)

Theme 2: AI-Era Cybersecurity & Software Rotation

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Key things for this week: Busy earnings week – This is the heaviest week of the season. The Fed decision, Q3 GDP and the PCE inflation data all land on the same two days as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. 542 companies worth $2bn or more report this week, with Thursday the busiest day at 202 reports. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are worth $10.9 trillion together, about a third of the $31.9 trillion reporting this week. The backdrop is already fragile: last week’s headlines featured stocks hit as AI growth concerns weigh on sentiment.

Are breakouts working: Selectively

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Major indices improving 10 sma trends suggests the markets are trying to strengthen, but could be a short term bounce.

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: SIPs, WSS or 5m ROE.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 32

Fridays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: 46

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 39

VIX: 19

52 week highs (US common stocks): 231

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX Downtrend

$QQQ: Downtrend

$SPY: Downtrend

$RSP: Uptrend

$DIA: Uptrend

$IWM: No trend

$BTC: Downtrend

$SQQQ: Uptrend

$UVIX: Uptrend

$TLT: Uptrend

$USO: Uptrend

$TNX: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors Friday:

• $HACK +4.16%
• $XLE +2.60%

2%- sectors Friday:

• $JETS -2.50%
• $IYT -2.12%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $XLU
• Lagging – $XLI $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $RTH $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $SMH

Bitcoin: 80k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Theme 1: Oil Shock & Energy Supercycle (Hormuz Supply Squeeze)

Theme 2: AI-Era Cybersecurity & Software Rotation

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Key things for this week: Busy earnings week – This is the heaviest week of the season. The Fed decision, Q3 GDP and the PCE inflation data all land on the same two days as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. 542 companies worth $2bn or more report this week, with Thursday the busiest day at 202 reports. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are worth $10.9 trillion together, about a third of the $31.9 trillion reporting this week. The backdrop is already fragile: last week’s headlines featured stocks hit as AI growth concerns weigh on sentiment.

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No, $QQQ $SPY are in downtrends, expect breakouts to fail.

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: SIPs, WSS or 5m RO on the short side.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 29

Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – High buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: 58

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 35

VIX: 17

52 week highs (US common stocks): 201

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX Downtrend

$QQQ: Downtrend

$SPY: Downtrend

$RSP: Uptrend

$DIA: Uptrend

$IWM: No trend

$BTC: Uptrend

$SQQQ: Uptrend

$UVIX: Uptrend

$TLT: Uptrend

$USO: Uptrend

$TNX: Downtrend

$GLD: No trend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: No trend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• $IBB +3.16%
• $JETS +2.38%
• $XLV +2.37%

2%- sectors yesterday:

• None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLV $XLP
• Lagging – $XLI $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $RTH $IGV
• Lagging – $TAN $JETS

Bitcoin: 82k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Theme 1: Oil Shock & Energy Supercycle (Hormuz Supply Squeeze)

Theme 2: Defensive Rotation – Healthcare & Big Pharma Breakout

What type of market are we in: Weak

Key things for this week: Big earnings include $META, $TSLA, $NFLX, $GM and $PG. Chips remain weak: they fell for an eighth straight day, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.5% on the week

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No, markets just chopping around in a weak environment, good earnings typically not being rewarded so far.

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: SIPs, don’t expect multi day moves to hold. Tech tried to rally yesterday but gave most back intrday.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
SOXL
TQQQ