Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 7

Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – High buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -63

Stocks above 40PMA: 26

VIX: 15

52 week highs (US common stocks): 184

Seasonality: September is broadly weak, and midterm years make it slightly weaker. Since 1950, September averages about -0.6% across all years, but in midterm years specifically it drops to roughly -0.8%, compared to +0.9% for October and +1.9% for November in all years. Other analyses using different lookback windows put the midterm-September average anywhere from -0.82% with a win rate of just 47.4% to slightly better depending on the exact years sampled.

The bigger story is the September–October low, not September alone. Across the 19 midterm years since 1950, market lows have clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election, and the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single one of those 19 midterm elections. Drawdowns in this window have ranged widely — a roughly 20% decline in 2002, a shallower pullback in 2010, ~10% in 2014, and ~11.5% in 2018.

Indices:

$SOXX No trend

$QQQ: No trend

$SPY: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: No trend

$SQQQ: No trend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: No trend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: No trend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• $TAN +3.90%
• $SMH +2.76%
• $IBB +2.31%
• $XLK +2.25%

2%- sectors yesterday:

• None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $IBB
• Lagging – $XLU $XLI

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $IGV $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $JETS

Bitcoin: 78k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Top thematic stocks:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
LITE	Lumentum Holdings Inc.	Communication Equipment – Optical/Photonics	$83.2B	+151.5%	800G/1.6T optical interconnect upgrade cycle for AI data centers	Buy; PT $1,148 (+24%)
CIEN	Ciena Corp	Communication Equipment – Networking	$49.6B	+49.5%	Record $8.5B backlog (seen exceeding $10B by FY-end); Q3 beat, but margin-normalization concerns	Buy; PT $504 (+44%)
COHR	Coherent Corp	Electronic Components – Photonics/Lasers	$59.8B	+65.5%	Diversified photonics/laser exposure to optical-interconnect upgrades	Buy; PT $415 (+36%)
GLW	Corning Inc	Electronic Components – Glass/Fiber	$143.3B	+91.1%	Fiber and glass infrastructure demand from AI data center buildout	Strong Buy; PT $194 (+17%)
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	Communication Equipment – Optical	$9.0B	+202.2%	Pure-play optical transceiver maker riding hyperscaler capex	Buy; PT $163 (+55%)
MRVL	Marvell Technology	Semiconductors – Networking/Optical DSP	$207.0B	+178.2%	Custom AI silicon plus optical DSP demand	Strong Buy; PT $285 (+21%)
CRDO	Credo Technology Group	Semiconductors – Connectivity	$30.6B	+13.3%	Active electrical cables/optical interconnect for AI server racks	Strong Buy; PT $281 (+73%)
AVGO	Broadcom Inc	Semiconductors – Networking/Custom ASIC	$1.73T	+5.0%	Custom AI ASICs plus core networking silicon	Strong Buy; PT $533 (+47%)
ANET	Arista Networks	Communication Equipment – Data Center Networking	$251.7B	+52.3%	High-speed switching for AI clusters	Strong Buy; PT $241 (+21%)
HPE	Hewlett Packard Enterprise	Computer Hardware	$69.3B	+160.9%	AI server/networking demand, Juniper integration; +12% single-day surge on Oracle read-through	Buy; PT $67 (+9%)
FN	Fabrinet	Electronic Components – Optical Manufacturing	$15.0B	−8.9%	Contract manufacturer for optical transceivers; lagging peers near-term	Buy; PT $734 (+77%)
ALAB	Astera Labs	Semiconductors – Connectivity	$50.5B	+75.1%	Connectivity chips linking GPUs and optics inside AI racks	Buy; PT $390 (+34%)
CSCO	Cisco Systems	Communication Equipment – Networking	$442.1B	+47.7%	AI-networking and security portfolio re-rating	Buy; PT $138 (+23%)
DELL	Dell Technologies	Computer Hardware – AI Servers	$356.5B	+354.8%	AI server backlog tied to data center buildout; shares have more than tripled in 2026	Buy; PT $564 (≈flat)
POET	POET Technologies	Semiconductors – Optical/Photonic ICs	$1.4B	+25.6%	Early-stage photonic integrated circuit developer	Thin coverage (n/a)
LUMA	KraneShares Photonic & Optical ETF	Thematic ETF	—	New (launched Jul 2026)	Pure-play basket: top holdings incl. Lumark Optoelectronics, SOITEC, LITE, COHR, MRVL	—

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Should I be trading: Indices in downtrends apart from $QQQ which is in no trend, 20% study got a pop on the bullish side 34 v 8 after a +382 day in the bullish 4% movers.

Patience to see if this is the start of a move or just more chop which is what it feels like at the moment.

SIPs & EP9’s with strong CATs main focus.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing at the moment

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 6

Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -96

Stocks above 40PMA: 24

VIX: 18

52 week highs (US common stocks): 166

Seasonality: September is broadly weak, and midterm years make it slightly weaker. Since 1950, September averages about -0.6% across all years, but in midterm years specifically it drops to roughly -0.8%, compared to +0.9% for October and +1.9% for November in all years. Other analyses using different lookback windows put the midterm-September average anywhere from -0.82% with a win rate of just 47.4% to slightly better depending on the exact years sampled.

The bigger story is the September–October low, not September alone. Across the 19 midterm years since 1950, market lows have clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election, and the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single one of those 19 midterm elections. Drawdowns in this window have ranged widely — a roughly 20% decline in 2002, a shallower pullback in 2010, ~10% in 2014, and ~11.5% in 2018.

Indices:

$SOXX No trend

$QQQ: Downtrend

$SPY: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: Downtrend

$SQQQ: Uptrend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• None

2%- sectors yesterday:

• $XLE -2.88%
• $IYT -2.02%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $IBB
• Lagging – $XLY $XLI

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $IGV $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $JETS

Bitcoin: 76k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Top thematic stocks:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
LITE	Lumentum Holdings Inc.	Communication Equipment – Optical/Photonics	$83.2B	+151.5%	800G/1.6T optical interconnect upgrade cycle for AI data centers	Buy; PT $1,148 (+24%)
CIEN	Ciena Corp	Communication Equipment – Networking	$49.6B	+49.5%	Record $8.5B backlog (seen exceeding $10B by FY-end); Q3 beat, but margin-normalization concerns	Buy; PT $504 (+44%)
COHR	Coherent Corp	Electronic Components – Photonics/Lasers	$59.8B	+65.5%	Diversified photonics/laser exposure to optical-interconnect upgrades	Buy; PT $415 (+36%)
GLW	Corning Inc	Electronic Components – Glass/Fiber	$143.3B	+91.1%	Fiber and glass infrastructure demand from AI data center buildout	Strong Buy; PT $194 (+17%)
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	Communication Equipment – Optical	$9.0B	+202.2%	Pure-play optical transceiver maker riding hyperscaler capex	Buy; PT $163 (+55%)
MRVL	Marvell Technology	Semiconductors – Networking/Optical DSP	$207.0B	+178.2%	Custom AI silicon plus optical DSP demand	Strong Buy; PT $285 (+21%)
CRDO	Credo Technology Group	Semiconductors – Connectivity	$30.6B	+13.3%	Active electrical cables/optical interconnect for AI server racks	Strong Buy; PT $281 (+73%)
AVGO	Broadcom Inc	Semiconductors – Networking/Custom ASIC	$1.73T	+5.0%	Custom AI ASICs plus core networking silicon	Strong Buy; PT $533 (+47%)
ANET	Arista Networks	Communication Equipment – Data Center Networking	$251.7B	+52.3%	High-speed switching for AI clusters	Strong Buy; PT $241 (+21%)
HPE	Hewlett Packard Enterprise	Computer Hardware	$69.3B	+160.9%	AI server/networking demand, Juniper integration; +12% single-day surge on Oracle read-through	Buy; PT $67 (+9%)
FN	Fabrinet	Electronic Components – Optical Manufacturing	$15.0B	−8.9%	Contract manufacturer for optical transceivers; lagging peers near-term	Buy; PT $734 (+77%)
ALAB	Astera Labs	Semiconductors – Connectivity	$50.5B	+75.1%	Connectivity chips linking GPUs and optics inside AI racks	Buy; PT $390 (+34%)
CSCO	Cisco Systems	Communication Equipment – Networking	$442.1B	+47.7%	AI-networking and security portfolio re-rating	Buy; PT $138 (+23%)
DELL	Dell Technologies	Computer Hardware – AI Servers	$356.5B	+354.8%	AI server backlog tied to data center buildout; shares have more than tripled in 2026	Buy; PT $564 (≈flat)
POET	POET Technologies	Semiconductors – Optical/Photonic ICs	$1.4B	+25.6%	Early-stage photonic integrated circuit developer	Thin coverage (n/a)
LUMA	KraneShares Photonic & Optical ETF	Thematic ETF	—	New (launched Jul 2026)	Pure-play basket: top holdings incl. Lumark Optoelectronics, SOITEC, LITE, COHR, MRVL	—

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Should I be trading: Indices in downtrends, 20% study low on both sides bullish & bearish, bullish side suggesting we are in bounce territory. Fed hiked interest rates as expected and futures up approx 1% early, will wait and see how the market responds after the open. Main focus SIPs and EP9s.

Expecting some sort of rally, but with all indices in downtrends will take some work for any meaningful rally even though we are approaching over sold territory in multiple breadth indicators.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing at the moment

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 5

Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -80

Stocks above 40PMA: 28

VIX: 17

52 week highs (US common stocks): 201

Seasonality: September is broadly weak, and midterm years make it slightly weaker. Since 1950, September averages about -0.6% across all years, but in midterm years specifically it drops to roughly -0.8%, compared to +0.9% for October and +1.9% for November in all years. Other analyses using different lookback windows put the midterm-September average anywhere from -0.82% with a win rate of just 47.4% to slightly better depending on the exact years sampled.

The bigger story is the September–October low, not September alone. Across the 19 midterm years since 1950, market lows have clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election, and the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single one of those 19 midterm elections. Drawdowns in this window have ranged widely — a roughly 20% decline in 2002, a shallower pullback in 2010, ~10% in 2014, and ~11.5% in 2018.

Indices:

$SOXX Downtrend

$QQQ: Downtrend

$SPY: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: Downtrend

$SQQQ: Uptrend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• $XLE +2.17%

2%- sectors yesterday:

• $TAN -2.44%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $IBB
• Lagging – $XLY $XLI

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $IGV $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $JETS

Bitcoin: 76k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Top thematic stocks:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
LITE	Lumentum Holdings Inc.	Communication Equipment – Optical/Photonics	$83.2B	+151.5%	800G/1.6T optical interconnect upgrade cycle for AI data centers	Buy; PT $1,148 (+24%)
CIEN	Ciena Corp	Communication Equipment – Networking	$49.6B	+49.5%	Record $8.5B backlog (seen exceeding $10B by FY-end); Q3 beat, but margin-normalization concerns	Buy; PT $504 (+44%)
COHR	Coherent Corp	Electronic Components – Photonics/Lasers	$59.8B	+65.5%	Diversified photonics/laser exposure to optical-interconnect upgrades	Buy; PT $415 (+36%)
GLW	Corning Inc	Electronic Components – Glass/Fiber	$143.3B	+91.1%	Fiber and glass infrastructure demand from AI data center buildout	Strong Buy; PT $194 (+17%)
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics	Communication Equipment – Optical	$9.0B	+202.2%	Pure-play optical transceiver maker riding hyperscaler capex	Buy; PT $163 (+55%)
MRVL	Marvell Technology	Semiconductors – Networking/Optical DSP	$207.0B	+178.2%	Custom AI silicon plus optical DSP demand	Strong Buy; PT $285 (+21%)
CRDO	Credo Technology Group	Semiconductors – Connectivity	$30.6B	+13.3%	Active electrical cables/optical interconnect for AI server racks	Strong Buy; PT $281 (+73%)
AVGO	Broadcom Inc	Semiconductors – Networking/Custom ASIC	$1.73T	+5.0%	Custom AI ASICs plus core networking silicon	Strong Buy; PT $533 (+47%)
ANET	Arista Networks	Communication Equipment – Data Center Networking	$251.7B	+52.3%	High-speed switching for AI clusters	Strong Buy; PT $241 (+21%)
HPE	Hewlett Packard Enterprise	Computer Hardware	$69.3B	+160.9%	AI server/networking demand, Juniper integration; +12% single-day surge on Oracle read-through	Buy; PT $67 (+9%)
FN	Fabrinet	Electronic Components – Optical Manufacturing	$15.0B	−8.9%	Contract manufacturer for optical transceivers; lagging peers near-term	Buy; PT $734 (+77%)
ALAB	Astera Labs	Semiconductors – Connectivity	$50.5B	+75.1%	Connectivity chips linking GPUs and optics inside AI racks	Buy; PT $390 (+34%)
CSCO	Cisco Systems	Communication Equipment – Networking	$442.1B	+47.7%	AI-networking and security portfolio re-rating	Buy; PT $138 (+23%)
DELL	Dell Technologies	Computer Hardware – AI Servers	$356.5B	+354.8%	AI server backlog tied to data center buildout; shares have more than tripled in 2026	Buy; PT $564 (≈flat)
POET	POET Technologies	Semiconductors – Optical/Photonic ICs	$1.4B	+25.6%	Early-stage photonic integrated circuit developer	Thin coverage (n/a)
LUMA	KraneShares Photonic & Optical ETF	Thematic ETF	—	New (launched Jul 2026)	Pure-play basket: top holdings incl. Lumark Optoelectronics, SOITEC, LITE, COHR, MRVL	—

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Should I be trading: Indices in downtrends, 20% study low on both sides bullish & bearish, SIPs, EP9 and WSS with strong CATs ONLY. Interest rate decision is on today which will likely help the market find some direction.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): $TBBK WSS “fintech Chime announced a $590M all-cash deal to acquire its other banking partner, Stride Bank, expected to close H1 2027. Chime currently relies on both Stride and Bancorp to operate without its own bank charter. Bringing Stride in-house signals Chime likely reduces or eliminates its reliance on Bancorp over time — the stock fell ~21% on the day. The deeper worry: if one major fintech partner insources its banking license, others in Bancorp’s client base could follow, which would strike directly at Bancorp’s core “banking-as-a-service” model.”

Overall market trend: Bullish phase – day 21

Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -95

Stocks above 40PMA: 36

VIX: 16

52 week highs (US common stocks): 171

Seasonality: September is broadly weak, and midterm years make it slightly weaker. Since 1950, September averages about -0.6% across all years, but in midterm years specifically it drops to roughly -0.8%, compared to +0.9% for October and +1.9% for November in all years. Other analyses using different lookback windows put the midterm-September average anywhere from -0.82% with a win rate of just 47.4% to slightly better depending on the exact years sampled.

The bigger story is the September–October low, not September alone. Across the 19 midterm years since 1950, market lows have clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election, and the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single one of those 19 midterm elections. Drawdowns in this window have ranged widely — a roughly 20% decline in 2002, a shallower pullback in 2010, ~10% in 2014, and ~11.5% in 2018.

Indices:

$SOXX Downtrend

$QQQ: No trend

$SPY: No trend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: No trend

$SQQQ: No trend

$UVIX: Downtrend

$TLT: No trend

$GLD: No trend

$SLV: No trend

$SLX: No trend

2%+ sectors Yesterday:

• None

2%- sectors Yesterday:

• $HACK -4.38%
• $IGV -3.46%
• $IYT -2.60%
• $JETS -2.14%
• $SMH -2.05%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $IBB $XLE
• Lagging – $XLU $XLI

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $HACK $SMH
• Lagging – $TAN $JETS

Bitcoin: 77k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

Top thematic stocks:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
SNDK	SanDisk Corp	Semiconductors/Data Storage	~$60B	+570%+	HBF standard launch, NAND shortage, investor-day FY28-30 targets	Buy; PT ~$1,500-1,600
MU	Micron Technology	Semiconductors/Memory	~$155B	+216%	HBM supply locked through CY2026, Q4 FY26 earnings pending	Buy; PT ~$950-1,000
SKHY	SK Hynix (US listing)	Semiconductors/Memory	~$180B (KRW basis)	+100%+	RBC Outperform init, HBF standard co-launch with SanDisk	Buy; PT ~$200
WDC	Western Digital	Data Storage	~$45B	+150%+	HDD/NAND supply tightness, hyperscaler orders	Buy; PT ~$500-550
STX	Seagate Technology	Data Storage	~$55B	+180%+	Record FY26 free cash flow ($3.1B)	Buy; PT ~$950-1,000
NVDA	Nvidia Corp	Semiconductors/AI Compute	~$4.2T	+30-35%	Q2 FY27 earnings this week (key S&P catalyst)	Strong Buy; PT ~$220-240
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	Semiconductors	~$350B	+60-70%	AI GPU roadmap, MI-series ramp	Buy; PT ~$260-280
AVGO	Broadcom Inc	Semiconductors/Custom Silicon	~$1.5T	+70-80%	Custom AI ASIC demand from hyperscalers	Buy; PT ~$400-420
TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor	Foundry	~$1.3T	+40-50%	Advanced node & CoWoS capacity expansion	Strong Buy; PT ~$350-370
ASML	ASML Holding	Semicap Equipment	~$450B	+30-40%	EUV order backlog, memory capex cycle	Buy; PT ~$1,150-1,200
LRCX	Lam Research	Semicap Equipment	~$180B	+50-60%	NAND/DRAM fab equipment orders	Buy; PT ~$150-160
AMAT	Applied Materials	Semicap Equipment	~$220B	+30-40%	Memory tool spending recovery	Buy; PT ~$260-280
KLAC	KLA Corp	Semicap Equipment	~$150B	+50-60%	Process control demand from memory fabs	Buy; PT ~$1,300-1,400
MRVL	Marvell Technology	Semiconductors/Custom Silicon	~$110B	+40-50%	Custom AI silicon design wins	Buy; PT ~$115-125
NBIS	Nebius Group	AI Cloud/Datacenter Infra	~$25B	+200%+	Q2 revenue +454% YoY, $37.5B RPO backlog	Buy; PT ~$150-170
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	Theme ETF	—	+30-40%	Broad semis exposure	—
DRAM	Roundhill Memory ETF	Theme ETF	—	High volatility	Pure-play memory basket	—
SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	Theme ETF	—	+35-45%	Broad semis exposure	—

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Should I be trading: Indices in no trend, 20% study low on both sides bullish & bearish, SIPs and EP9 with strong CATs ONLY

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing yet