Overall market trend: Bullish phase – day 35
Fridays market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -5
Stocks above 40PMA: 46%
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 271
Seasonality: June is likely to be choppy-to-weak, consistent with the broader H1 softness of a midterm year. Volatility should remain elevated. However, any meaningful June weakness could represent a buying opportunity for traders positioned for the historically strong Q4 midterm rally into November elections. The real pain point seasonality points to is September–October, not June — so June may be more of a sideways grind than a sharp decline.
As always — these are probabilistic patterns, not guarantees. Macro factors (Fed policy, tariff developments, earnings) can and do override seasonal tendencies.
Indices:
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT Uptrend
1%+ sectors Friday:
- $IGV +6.25%
- $HACK +5.83%
- $TAN +2.78%
- $XLK +2.23%
1%- sectors Friday:
- $XLP -1.80%
- $RTH -1.44%
- $XTL -1.29%
- $XLE -1.16%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLK $XLV
- Lagging – $XLU $XLE
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $HACK $TAN
- Lagging – $KRE $RTH
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 73k ish
Themes: AI GPU & Accelerators, Custom AI Silicon (ASICs), AI Networking & Interconnects, Optical Photonics & Bandwidth, Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Hyperscaler Cloud Platforms, AI Data Cloud & Analytics, Enterprise Agentic AI Software, AI Memory (HBM), Government & Defense AI
Top 15 thematic stocks:
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Mkt Cap | YTD | Key Catalyst | Analyst View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Semiconductors | ~$2.6T | ~+25% | Data center GPU dominance; 70% rev growth guided | Strong Buy ~$175 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semis/Networking | ~$2.0T | +23% | Q2 FY26 earnings June 3; custom AI silicon for hyperscalers; Wi-Fi 8 chips | Buy BofA/MS top pick |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | AI Networking | ~$95B | +100%+ | $2B Nvidia strategic deal; Ethernet switches for AI clusters; BofA “AI compute” pick | Buy ~$120+ |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductors | ~$350B | +40%+ | CPU renaissance; server market share gains vs Intel; MI300X AI accelerators | Outperform Evercore |
| MU | Micron Technology | Memory/AI | ~$800B+ | +100%+ | HBM3E AI memory; customers getting only 50-66% of requirements; supply-constrained | Strong Buy |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp. | Cloud/AI Software | ~$3.1T | ~+15% | Azure AI growth; Microsoft Build 2026 dev event; Copilot monetization | Buy ~$415 |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Data/AI Cloud | ~$80B | +60%+ | Q1 beat; AI accounts 9,100→13,600 in one quarter; Cortex Code; $6B AWS deal | Outperform $275–$295 |
| NOW | ServiceNow Inc. | Enterprise AI | ~$220B | ~+30% | Agentic AI workflows; gained 5% on Snowflake coattails; “poster child” for enterprise AI | Buy premium multiple |
| ORCL | Oracle Corp. | Cloud/AI Infra | ~$580B | +7% | $553B remaining performance obligations (+325%); AI infra prepayments; gained 6.8% on SNOW day | Buy ~$204 |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | AI Software/Gov | ~$180B | ~+50% | AIP platform; government & enterprise AI; surged 6–8% on software re-rating week | Hold/Buy high premium |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems Inc. | AI Networking | ~$240B | ~+20% | Record Q3 revenue $15.8B (+AI networking); raised full-year outlook; hyperscaler demand | Buy |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Semiconductor Equip | ~$180B | ~+20% | BofA top 8 AI beneficiary; wafer fabrication equipment demand; AI node buildout | Outperform |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp. | Semiconductor Equip | ~$110B | ~+15% | Etch/deposition tools critical for AI chip layers; capex cycle beneficiary | Buy |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | Optical/Photonics | ~$8B | +121% | Photonics solves AI data center bandwidth bottleneck; all-time gains of 855%+ per Tickeron | Buy |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Hyperscaler/AI | ~$2.4T | ~+12% | TPU AI chips (Broadcom partnership); Gemini AI; Google Cloud revenue acceleration | Buy ~$387 |
| SOXX | iShares Semis ETF | ETF | — | +35%+ | Broad semiconductor exposure; NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, MRVL, AMAT, LRCX | ETF — diversified |
| SMH | VanEck Semis ETF | ETF | — | +35%+ | Similar to SOXX; largest AI chip names; liquid | ETF — diversified |
| IGV | iShares Exp. Tech-Software ETF | ETF | — | +21% May alone | Enterprise software re-rating; SNOW, NOW, ORCL, CRM, MSFT, PLTR | ETF — best month since 2001 |
Are breakouts working: Yes
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: The 20% study is very elevated at 120, anything over 100 is frothy so expecting a pull back in the coming days
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Yes in weak sectors & extended stocks
Should I be trading: No new longs with 20% study elevated
Stock goat 