Entry price – 51.61
SL – 50.99
Risk – 0.62 cents (just below LOD)
Time of entry – 14:36 BST
21 ADR – 1.75
Catalyst / setup – Markets gapped down on hot CPI read, which could reduce the likelihood of interest rates. Markets initially rose and the 20% bullish study was under 10 which is a bounce zone, the zCombo was bullish so took a low risk long position on a break of the opening 5m bar.
Result – No scales, fully stopped at 16:37 @ 50.99 for full loss -100%
Entry price – 51.64
SL – 51.30
Risk – 0.34 (just below LOD)
Time of entry – 14:32 BST
21 ADR – 1.74
Catalyst / setup – Down about 20% in approx a week and gapped down approx 5.5% at the open, memory being a key theme in the AI trade naturally will have a lot of eyes on it, my Zcombo indicator was leaning bullish from the open so took a low risk entry against the lows, risking 34 cents which I saw as a good R:R for playing an oversold bounce.
Result – Runner running, scaled 50% @ 14:39 after 1% move up at 52.01, and scaled another 50% @ 17:30 after 2% move at 52.62
Update 14/10 pre market: Runner stopped pre market on CPI print at 13:35 @ 51.30, approx 100% profit overall on the trade
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 25
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Very high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 1
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 25
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 180
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$RSP: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Uptrend
$USO: Up trend
$TNX: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 82k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Theme 1: Oil Supply Shock — Refiners, Tankers & Crude Producers
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $433.75 | $134B | +160% | Gulf Coast crack spreads widen on Isaias outages; Q3 earnings late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $455.03 | $135B | +170% | Record refining margins; heavy buybacks; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Energy / Refining & Midstream | $278.18 | $112B | +105% | Refining plus midstream leverage to tight fuel markets; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | Energy / Refining | $84.85 | $9.8B | +200% | Highest-beta refiner; on top bullish-signal scans (RS 98) | Hold; PT: verify |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | Energy / Refining | $121.30 | $22B | +160% | Inland refining margins; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $168.94 | $720B | +40% | Brent near $100; Guyana volumes; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $211.98 | $425B | +40% | Hess/Guyana integration; cash returns; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy / Exploration & Production | $134.10 | $167B | +50% | Largest pure-play exploration & production leverage to crude; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| APA | APA Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $46.03 | $16B | +90% | Among the top S&P 500 performers of 2026; Egypt gas and North Sea exposure | Hold; PT: verify |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $60.11 | $59B | +45% | Permian oil leverage; debt reduction | Hold; PT: verify |
| FRO | Frontline plc | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $56.10 | $12.5B | +150% | Very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates spike on Hormuz rerouting and war-risk premiums | Buy; PT: verify |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers Inc. | Marine Shipping / Product Tankers | $85.14 | $4.3B | +65% | Product tanker demand from diesel arbitrage and Gulf refinery outages | Buy; PT: verify |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | Marine Shipping / Crude & Product Tankers | $119.82 | $5.9B | +145% | Mixed crude and product fleet; spot rate exposure | Buy; PT: verify |
| ECO | Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $93.11 | $3.0B | +200% | #4 bullish signal on 8 Oct (RSI 77, +33% in one month) | Buy; PT: verify |
| TK | Teekay Corporation Ltd. | Marine Shipping / Tankers | $15.27 | $1.3B | +65% | #2 bullish signal on 8 Oct; holding company exposure to tanker spot rates | Hold; PT: verify |
| ETF XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy sector | — | — | +37.6% (to 2 Oct) | Broad energy | — |
| ETF XOP | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Exploration & production | — | — | — | Upstream beta | — |
| ETF CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | Global refiners | — | — | — | Pure refining | — |
| ETF OIH | VanEck Oil Services ETF | Oilfield services | — | — | — | Capital spending follow-through | — |
Theme 2: AI Power & Nuclear Grid Buildout
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | Utilities / Nuclear Independent Power Producer | $298.07 | $108B | −15% | Google 890 MW 20-year plus 2.7 GW 15-year deals; Amazon deal; Q3 early Nov | Buy; PT ≈ $342 |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $161.48 | $55B | ≈0% | Reported $4B federal nuclear loan; Cogentrix acquisition | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $378.57 | $17B | ≈0% | Susquehanna nuclear plant supply to an Amazon (AWS) data center campus | Buy; PT: verify |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $107.97 | $23B | −30% | Texas grid data center load; gas fleet expansion | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | Industrials / Power Equipment | $1,004.73 | $273B | +55% | Gas turbine and grid backlog; small modular reactors; Q3 earnings ~22 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT ≈ $1,133 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | Industrials / Fuel Cells | $280.50 | $66B | +180% | Oracle Project Jupiter fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW); Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Utilities / Small Modular Reactors | $34.70 | $5.6B | −50% | Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing milestones; Switch 12 GW agreement | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| SMR | NuScale Power Corporation | Industrials / Small Modular Reactors | $7.20 | $2.2B | −55% | Certified small modular reactor design; deal-flow optionality | Hold; PT: verify |
| CCJ | Cameco Corporation | Materials / Uranium | $88.06 | $38B | ≈0% | Uranium contracting; Westinghouse stake | Buy; PT: verify |
| LEU | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials / Nuclear Fuel Enrichment | $142.44 | $2.7B | −45% | Enrichment capacity for low-enriched and high-assay fuel; Department of Energy funding | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | Industrials / Nuclear Components | $143.83 | $13B | −15% | Naval reactors; advanced reactor fuel | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | Industrials / Grid Construction | $705.94 | $105B | +65% | Transmission buildout for nuclear uprates and data centers; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | Industrials / Electrical Equipment | $429.65 | $168B | +30% | Data center power distribution; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Regulated + Renewables | $77.38 | $159B | −3% | Duane Arnold nuclear restart for Google | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | Utilities / Regulated | $102.80 | $46B | +10% | Flipped bullish on the turnaround scans; Gulf South data center load growth | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETF URA | Global X Uranium ETF | Uranium & nuclear | — | — | — | Nuclear beta | — |
| ETF NLR | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF | Nuclear utilities & fuel | — | — | — | Lower-volatility nuclear | — |
| ETF NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF | Nuclear buildout | — | — | — | Small modular reactors and supply chain | — |
| ETF GRID | First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid ETF | Grid infrastructure | — | — | — | Electrification | — |
| ETF XLU | Utilities Select Sector SPDR | Utilities | — | — | −7.8% (to 2 Oct) | Broad utilities | — |
What type of market are we in: Selling off
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Maybe
Should I be trading: Hot CPI report seemed to kick off a tech sell off, markets getting hit hard and hitting numerous oversold levels. Expect a bounce in the coming days ideally see a 1000+ buying day. Earnings season picking up. Current market not for my style of trading.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing at the moment
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 24
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – High selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 43
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 29
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 193
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$USO: Up trend
$TNX: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 84k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Theme 1: Oil Supply Shock — Refiners, Tankers & Crude Producers
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $433.75 | $134B | +160% | Gulf Coast crack spreads widen on Isaias outages; Q3 earnings late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $455.03 | $135B | +170% | Record refining margins; heavy buybacks; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Energy / Refining & Midstream | $278.18 | $112B | +105% | Refining plus midstream leverage to tight fuel markets; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | Energy / Refining | $84.85 | $9.8B | +200% | Highest-beta refiner; on top bullish-signal scans (RS 98) | Hold; PT: verify |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | Energy / Refining | $121.30 | $22B | +160% | Inland refining margins; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $168.94 | $720B | +40% | Brent near $100; Guyana volumes; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $211.98 | $425B | +40% | Hess/Guyana integration; cash returns; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy / Exploration & Production | $134.10 | $167B | +50% | Largest pure-play exploration & production leverage to crude; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| APA | APA Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $46.03 | $16B | +90% | Among the top S&P 500 performers of 2026; Egypt gas and North Sea exposure | Hold; PT: verify |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $60.11 | $59B | +45% | Permian oil leverage; debt reduction | Hold; PT: verify |
| FRO | Frontline plc | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $56.10 | $12.5B | +150% | Very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates spike on Hormuz rerouting and war-risk premiums | Buy; PT: verify |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers Inc. | Marine Shipping / Product Tankers | $85.14 | $4.3B | +65% | Product tanker demand from diesel arbitrage and Gulf refinery outages | Buy; PT: verify |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | Marine Shipping / Crude & Product Tankers | $119.82 | $5.9B | +145% | Mixed crude and product fleet; spot rate exposure | Buy; PT: verify |
| ECO | Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $93.11 | $3.0B | +200% | #4 bullish signal on 8 Oct (RSI 77, +33% in one month) | Buy; PT: verify |
| TK | Teekay Corporation Ltd. | Marine Shipping / Tankers | $15.27 | $1.3B | +65% | #2 bullish signal on 8 Oct; holding company exposure to tanker spot rates | Hold; PT: verify |
| ETF XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy sector | — | — | +37.6% (to 2 Oct) | Broad energy | — |
| ETF XOP | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Exploration & production | — | — | — | Upstream beta | — |
| ETF CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | Global refiners | — | — | — | Pure refining | — |
| ETF OIH | VanEck Oil Services ETF | Oilfield services | — | — | — | Capital spending follow-through | — |
Theme 2: AI Power & Nuclear Grid Buildout
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | Utilities / Nuclear Independent Power Producer | $298.07 | $108B | −15% | Google 890 MW 20-year plus 2.7 GW 15-year deals; Amazon deal; Q3 early Nov | Buy; PT ≈ $342 |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $161.48 | $55B | ≈0% | Reported $4B federal nuclear loan; Cogentrix acquisition | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $378.57 | $17B | ≈0% | Susquehanna nuclear plant supply to an Amazon (AWS) data center campus | Buy; PT: verify |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $107.97 | $23B | −30% | Texas grid data center load; gas fleet expansion | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | Industrials / Power Equipment | $1,004.73 | $273B | +55% | Gas turbine and grid backlog; small modular reactors; Q3 earnings ~22 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT ≈ $1,133 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | Industrials / Fuel Cells | $280.50 | $66B | +180% | Oracle Project Jupiter fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW); Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Utilities / Small Modular Reactors | $34.70 | $5.6B | −50% | Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing milestones; Switch 12 GW agreement | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| SMR | NuScale Power Corporation | Industrials / Small Modular Reactors | $7.20 | $2.2B | −55% | Certified small modular reactor design; deal-flow optionality | Hold; PT: verify |
| CCJ | Cameco Corporation | Materials / Uranium | $88.06 | $38B | ≈0% | Uranium contracting; Westinghouse stake | Buy; PT: verify |
| LEU | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials / Nuclear Fuel Enrichment | $142.44 | $2.7B | −45% | Enrichment capacity for low-enriched and high-assay fuel; Department of Energy funding | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | Industrials / Nuclear Components | $143.83 | $13B | −15% | Naval reactors; advanced reactor fuel | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | Industrials / Grid Construction | $705.94 | $105B | +65% | Transmission buildout for nuclear uprates and data centers; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | Industrials / Electrical Equipment | $429.65 | $168B | +30% | Data center power distribution; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Regulated + Renewables | $77.38 | $159B | −3% | Duane Arnold nuclear restart for Google | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | Utilities / Regulated | $102.80 | $46B | +10% | Flipped bullish on the turnaround scans; Gulf South data center load growth | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETF URA | Global X Uranium ETF | Uranium & nuclear | — | — | — | Nuclear beta | — |
| ETF NLR | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF | Nuclear utilities & fuel | — | — | — | Lower-volatility nuclear | — |
| ETF NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF | Nuclear buildout | — | — | — | Small modular reactors and supply chain | — |
| ETF GRID | First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid ETF | Grid infrastructure | — | — | — | Electrification | — |
| ETF XLU | Utilities Select Sector SPDR | Utilities | — | — | −7.8% (to 2 Oct) | Broad utilities | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Earnings season started should provide some catalysts and potentially move the market out of the current chop phase. EP9 and SIPs with catalysts. 20% study bullish under 10 so in the bounce area.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing at the moment
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 23
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – High selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 31
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 27
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 192
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: Uptrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$USO: No trend
$TNX: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 84k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Theme 1: Oil Supply Shock — Refiners, Tankers & Crude Producers
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $433.75 | $134B | +160% | Gulf Coast crack spreads widen on Isaias outages; Q3 earnings late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $455.03 | $135B | +170% | Record refining margins; heavy buybacks; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Energy / Refining & Midstream | $278.18 | $112B | +105% | Refining plus midstream leverage to tight fuel markets; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | Energy / Refining | $84.85 | $9.8B | +200% | Highest-beta refiner; on top bullish-signal scans (RS 98) | Hold; PT: verify |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | Energy / Refining | $121.30 | $22B | +160% | Inland refining margins; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $168.94 | $720B | +40% | Brent near $100; Guyana volumes; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $211.98 | $425B | +40% | Hess/Guyana integration; cash returns; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy / Exploration & Production | $134.10 | $167B | +50% | Largest pure-play exploration & production leverage to crude; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| APA | APA Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $46.03 | $16B | +90% | Among the top S&P 500 performers of 2026; Egypt gas and North Sea exposure | Hold; PT: verify |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $60.11 | $59B | +45% | Permian oil leverage; debt reduction | Hold; PT: verify |
| FRO | Frontline plc | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $56.10 | $12.5B | +150% | Very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates spike on Hormuz rerouting and war-risk premiums | Buy; PT: verify |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers Inc. | Marine Shipping / Product Tankers | $85.14 | $4.3B | +65% | Product tanker demand from diesel arbitrage and Gulf refinery outages | Buy; PT: verify |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | Marine Shipping / Crude & Product Tankers | $119.82 | $5.9B | +145% | Mixed crude and product fleet; spot rate exposure | Buy; PT: verify |
| ECO | Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $93.11 | $3.0B | +200% | #4 bullish signal on 8 Oct (RSI 77, +33% in one month) | Buy; PT: verify |
| TK | Teekay Corporation Ltd. | Marine Shipping / Tankers | $15.27 | $1.3B | +65% | #2 bullish signal on 8 Oct; holding company exposure to tanker spot rates | Hold; PT: verify |
| ETF XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy sector | — | — | +37.6% (to 2 Oct) | Broad energy | — |
| ETF XOP | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Exploration & production | — | — | — | Upstream beta | — |
| ETF CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | Global refiners | — | — | — | Pure refining | — |
| ETF OIH | VanEck Oil Services ETF | Oilfield services | — | — | — | Capital spending follow-through | — |
Theme 2: AI Power & Nuclear Grid Buildout
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | Utilities / Nuclear Independent Power Producer | $298.07 | $108B | −15% | Google 890 MW 20-year plus 2.7 GW 15-year deals; Amazon deal; Q3 early Nov | Buy; PT ≈ $342 |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $161.48 | $55B | ≈0% | Reported $4B federal nuclear loan; Cogentrix acquisition | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $378.57 | $17B | ≈0% | Susquehanna nuclear plant supply to an Amazon (AWS) data center campus | Buy; PT: verify |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $107.97 | $23B | −30% | Texas grid data center load; gas fleet expansion | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | Industrials / Power Equipment | $1,004.73 | $273B | +55% | Gas turbine and grid backlog; small modular reactors; Q3 earnings ~22 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT ≈ $1,133 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | Industrials / Fuel Cells | $280.50 | $66B | +180% | Oracle Project Jupiter fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW); Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Utilities / Small Modular Reactors | $34.70 | $5.6B | −50% | Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing milestones; Switch 12 GW agreement | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| SMR | NuScale Power Corporation | Industrials / Small Modular Reactors | $7.20 | $2.2B | −55% | Certified small modular reactor design; deal-flow optionality | Hold; PT: verify |
| CCJ | Cameco Corporation | Materials / Uranium | $88.06 | $38B | ≈0% | Uranium contracting; Westinghouse stake | Buy; PT: verify |
| LEU | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials / Nuclear Fuel Enrichment | $142.44 | $2.7B | −45% | Enrichment capacity for low-enriched and high-assay fuel; Department of Energy funding | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | Industrials / Nuclear Components | $143.83 | $13B | −15% | Naval reactors; advanced reactor fuel | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | Industrials / Grid Construction | $705.94 | $105B | +65% | Transmission buildout for nuclear uprates and data centers; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | Industrials / Electrical Equipment | $429.65 | $168B | +30% | Data center power distribution; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Regulated + Renewables | $77.38 | $159B | −3% | Duane Arnold nuclear restart for Google | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | Utilities / Regulated | $102.80 | $46B | +10% | Flipped bullish on the turnaround scans; Gulf South data center load growth | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETF URA | Global X Uranium ETF | Uranium & nuclear | — | — | — | Nuclear beta | — |
| ETF NLR | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF | Nuclear utilities & fuel | — | — | — | Lower-volatility nuclear | — |
| ETF NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF | Nuclear buildout | — | — | — | Small modular reactors and supply chain | — |
| ETF GRID | First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid ETF | Grid infrastructure | — | — | — | Electrification | — |
| ETF XLU | Utilities Select Sector SPDR | Utilities | — | — | −7.8% (to 2 Oct) | Broad utilities | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Earnings season starts today with the banks should provide some catalysts and potentially move the market out of the current chop phase. EP9 and SIPs with catalysts. 20% study bullish is 9 so in the bounce area.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): $HOOD $MSTR
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 22
Fridays market: Money entering the market – Normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 21
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 25
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 199
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: Uptrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$USO: No trend
$TNX: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors Friday:
2%- sectors Friday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 84k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Theme 1: Oil Supply Shock — Refiners, Tankers & Crude Producers
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $433.75 | $134B | +160% | Gulf Coast crack spreads widen on Isaias outages; Q3 earnings late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $455.03 | $135B | +170% | Record refining margins; heavy buybacks; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Energy / Refining & Midstream | $278.18 | $112B | +105% | Refining plus midstream leverage to tight fuel markets; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | Energy / Refining | $84.85 | $9.8B | +200% | Highest-beta refiner; on top bullish-signal scans (RS 98) | Hold; PT: verify |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | Energy / Refining | $121.30 | $22B | +160% | Inland refining margins; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $168.94 | $720B | +40% | Brent near $100; Guyana volumes; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $211.98 | $425B | +40% | Hess/Guyana integration; cash returns; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy / Exploration & Production | $134.10 | $167B | +50% | Largest pure-play exploration & production leverage to crude; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| APA | APA Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $46.03 | $16B | +90% | Among the top S&P 500 performers of 2026; Egypt gas and North Sea exposure | Hold; PT: verify |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $60.11 | $59B | +45% | Permian oil leverage; debt reduction | Hold; PT: verify |
| FRO | Frontline plc | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $56.10 | $12.5B | +150% | Very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates spike on Hormuz rerouting and war-risk premiums | Buy; PT: verify |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers Inc. | Marine Shipping / Product Tankers | $85.14 | $4.3B | +65% | Product tanker demand from diesel arbitrage and Gulf refinery outages | Buy; PT: verify |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | Marine Shipping / Crude & Product Tankers | $119.82 | $5.9B | +145% | Mixed crude and product fleet; spot rate exposure | Buy; PT: verify |
| ECO | Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $93.11 | $3.0B | +200% | #4 bullish signal on 8 Oct (RSI 77, +33% in one month) | Buy; PT: verify |
| TK | Teekay Corporation Ltd. | Marine Shipping / Tankers | $15.27 | $1.3B | +65% | #2 bullish signal on 8 Oct; holding company exposure to tanker spot rates | Hold; PT: verify |
| ETF XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy sector | — | — | +37.6% (to 2 Oct) | Broad energy | — |
| ETF XOP | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Exploration & production | — | — | — | Upstream beta | — |
| ETF CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | Global refiners | — | — | — | Pure refining | — |
| ETF OIH | VanEck Oil Services ETF | Oilfield services | — | — | — | Capital spending follow-through | — |
Theme 2: AI Power & Nuclear Grid Buildout
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | Utilities / Nuclear Independent Power Producer | $298.07 | $108B | −15% | Google 890 MW 20-year plus 2.7 GW 15-year deals; Amazon deal; Q3 early Nov | Buy; PT ≈ $342 |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $161.48 | $55B | ≈0% | Reported $4B federal nuclear loan; Cogentrix acquisition | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $378.57 | $17B | ≈0% | Susquehanna nuclear plant supply to an Amazon (AWS) data center campus | Buy; PT: verify |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $107.97 | $23B | −30% | Texas grid data center load; gas fleet expansion | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | Industrials / Power Equipment | $1,004.73 | $273B | +55% | Gas turbine and grid backlog; small modular reactors; Q3 earnings ~22 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT ≈ $1,133 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | Industrials / Fuel Cells | $280.50 | $66B | +180% | Oracle Project Jupiter fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW); Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Utilities / Small Modular Reactors | $34.70 | $5.6B | −50% | Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing milestones; Switch 12 GW agreement | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| SMR | NuScale Power Corporation | Industrials / Small Modular Reactors | $7.20 | $2.2B | −55% | Certified small modular reactor design; deal-flow optionality | Hold; PT: verify |
| CCJ | Cameco Corporation | Materials / Uranium | $88.06 | $38B | ≈0% | Uranium contracting; Westinghouse stake | Buy; PT: verify |
| LEU | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials / Nuclear Fuel Enrichment | $142.44 | $2.7B | −45% | Enrichment capacity for low-enriched and high-assay fuel; Department of Energy funding | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | Industrials / Nuclear Components | $143.83 | $13B | −15% | Naval reactors; advanced reactor fuel | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | Industrials / Grid Construction | $705.94 | $105B | +65% | Transmission buildout for nuclear uprates and data centers; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | Industrials / Electrical Equipment | $429.65 | $168B | +30% | Data center power distribution; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Regulated + Renewables | $77.38 | $159B | −3% | Duane Arnold nuclear restart for Google | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | Utilities / Regulated | $102.80 | $46B | +10% | Flipped bullish on the turnaround scans; Gulf South data center load growth | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETF URA | Global X Uranium ETF | Uranium & nuclear | — | — | — | Nuclear beta | — |
| ETF NLR | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF | Nuclear utilities & fuel | — | — | — | Lower-volatility nuclear | — |
| ETF NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF | Nuclear buildout | — | — | — | Small modular reactors and supply chain | — |
| ETF GRID | First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid ETF | Grid infrastructure | — | — | — | Electrification | — |
| ETF XLU | Utilities Select Sector SPDR | Utilities | — | — | −7.8% (to 2 Oct) | Broad utilities | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Start of earnings season should provide some catalysts and potentially move the market out of the current chop phase. EP9 and SIPs with catalysts.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$PATH
$NOK
$PL
$BE
$SOXX
$META
$TQQQ
$MMED
$DRAM
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 21
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -15
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 24
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 187
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: No trend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$USO: No trend
$TNX: No trend
$GLD: Downtrend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 83k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
THEME 1: AI Chip Equipment & Fab Capex Supercycle
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Fab Equipment | verify | ~+100% | +10.95% wk; Morgan Stanley raised 2027 EPS est. to $20.92 | Buy; PT verify |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Semis – Etch/Deposition | ~$420B | verify | +10.24% wk; Micron memory capex read-across; earnings late Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | Semis – Process Control | verify | +62.6% | +10.10% wk; JPM top US equipment pick | Buy; PT verify |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Semis – Lithography | verify | verify | Q3 results mid-Oct; EUV order intake | Buy; PT verify |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | Semis – Foundry | verify | verify | Sept monthly sales and Q3 earnings mid-Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | Semis – Memory | ~$1.2T | verify | FQ4 rev $54.2B (+379% YoY); FQ1 guide $61.5B; capex step-up | Buy; Needham PT $1,650 (Jun) |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | Semis – Test Equipment | verify | verify | HBM/AI accelerator test demand | verify |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation Inc. | Semis – Inspection/Metrology | verify | verify | Advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| NVMI | Nova Ltd. | Semis – Metrology | verify | verify | Memory/logic node transitions | verify |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | Semis – Materials/Consumables | verify | verify | Wafer starts rising with capacity | verify |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | Semis – Subsystems/Lasers | verify | verify | Tool-builder supply chain | verify |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | Semis – OSAT/Advanced Packaging | verify | verify | HBM/CoWoS-style packaging capacity | verify |
| FORM | FormFactor, Inc. | Semis – Probe Cards | verify | verify | HBM probe card demand | verify |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Cleaning | verify | verify | Memory fab expansion | verify |
| CAMT | Camtek Ltd. | Semis – Inspection | verify | verify | HBM/advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| ETF SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | ETF | ~$74B AUM | +59.07% (18 Sep) | Broad semis incl. equipment | – |
| ETF SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Broad semis | – |
| ETF PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-ish weight semis | – |
| ETF XSD | SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-weight semis | – |
Theme 2: AI Optical Networking & Data-Centre Interconnect
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Optical Components | ~$74B | >+100% | Bernstein Outperform; FQ1 guide $1.225–1.275B | Mixed Buy/Hold; TD Cowen PT $675 |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | Optical Components/Lasers | ~$50B | verify | PhotonLink launch; +10% on 1 Oct | Buy; Bernstein PT $350, TD Cowen $330 |
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Optical Networking | ~$52B | +59% | Bernstein PT $440; Evercore upgrade, PT $550 | Buy; PT verify |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | Fibre/Specialty Glass | verify | >+100% | +8.31% wk; Nvidia/Amazon fibre deals | Buy; PT verify |
| ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | Data-Centre Networking | verify | verify | Bernstein Outperform initiation | Buy; TD Cowen PT $170 (Mar) |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | Networking Equipment | ~$440B | ~+46% (Jul) | +2.8% on 2 Oct; climbing AI networking orders | Buy; PT verify |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semis – Networking/Custom AI | verify | verify | +3.35% on 2 Oct; AI chip funding headline | Buy; PT verify |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | Semis – Optical DSP/Custom AI | verify | verify | Optical DSPs; top optics ETF holding | Buy; PT verify |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Semis – Connectivity | verify | verify | Active electrical cables, AI scale-out | verify |
| FN | Fabrinet | Optical Manufacturing (EMS) | verify | verify | Builds transceivers for optics leaders | verify |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | Optical Transceivers | verify | verify | Hyperscaler transceiver ramp | verify |
| ALAB | Astera Labs, Inc. | Semis – AI Connectivity | verify | verify | PCIe/CXL scale-up fabric | verify |
| CLS | Celestica Inc. | EMS – Networking Hardware | verify | verify | Hyperscaler switch builds | verify |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | Semis – Analog/Optical | verify | verify | 800G/1.6T optical drivers | verify |
| NOK | Nokia Oyj | Optical/Telecom Networking | verify | verify | Data-centre interconnect via Infinera | verify |
| ETF LYTE | Optical networking ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics; +4% on 1 Oct | – |
| ETF LAZR | Optical/photonics ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics | – |
| ETF IGN | iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Networking equipment | – |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Tech sold off on ChatGPT revenue concerns, market remains choppy, earnings season start next week which should help the market find some direction.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$MMED
$SOXX
$Z
$DRAM
$PLTR
$BE
$NOW
$TQQQ
$HPQ
$PATH
$CCC
$META
$TTD
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 20
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -28
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 21
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 169
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$USO: No trend
$GLD: Downtrend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 83k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
THEME 1: AI Chip Equipment & Fab Capex Supercycle
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Fab Equipment | verify | ~+100% | +10.95% wk; Morgan Stanley raised 2027 EPS est. to $20.92 | Buy; PT verify |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Semis – Etch/Deposition | ~$420B | verify | +10.24% wk; Micron memory capex read-across; earnings late Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | Semis – Process Control | verify | +62.6% | +10.10% wk; JPM top US equipment pick | Buy; PT verify |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Semis – Lithography | verify | verify | Q3 results mid-Oct; EUV order intake | Buy; PT verify |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | Semis – Foundry | verify | verify | Sept monthly sales and Q3 earnings mid-Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | Semis – Memory | ~$1.2T | verify | FQ4 rev $54.2B (+379% YoY); FQ1 guide $61.5B; capex step-up | Buy; Needham PT $1,650 (Jun) |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | Semis – Test Equipment | verify | verify | HBM/AI accelerator test demand | verify |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation Inc. | Semis – Inspection/Metrology | verify | verify | Advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| NVMI | Nova Ltd. | Semis – Metrology | verify | verify | Memory/logic node transitions | verify |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | Semis – Materials/Consumables | verify | verify | Wafer starts rising with capacity | verify |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | Semis – Subsystems/Lasers | verify | verify | Tool-builder supply chain | verify |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | Semis – OSAT/Advanced Packaging | verify | verify | HBM/CoWoS-style packaging capacity | verify |
| FORM | FormFactor, Inc. | Semis – Probe Cards | verify | verify | HBM probe card demand | verify |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Cleaning | verify | verify | Memory fab expansion | verify |
| CAMT | Camtek Ltd. | Semis – Inspection | verify | verify | HBM/advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| ETF SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | ETF | ~$74B AUM | +59.07% (18 Sep) | Broad semis incl. equipment | – |
| ETF SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Broad semis | – |
| ETF PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-ish weight semis | – |
| ETF XSD | SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-weight semis | – |
Theme 2: AI Optical Networking & Data-Centre Interconnect
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Optical Components | ~$74B | >+100% | Bernstein Outperform; FQ1 guide $1.225–1.275B | Mixed Buy/Hold; TD Cowen PT $675 |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | Optical Components/Lasers | ~$50B | verify | PhotonLink launch; +10% on 1 Oct | Buy; Bernstein PT $350, TD Cowen $330 |
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Optical Networking | ~$52B | +59% | Bernstein PT $440; Evercore upgrade, PT $550 | Buy; PT verify |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | Fibre/Specialty Glass | verify | >+100% | +8.31% wk; Nvidia/Amazon fibre deals | Buy; PT verify |
| ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | Data-Centre Networking | verify | verify | Bernstein Outperform initiation | Buy; TD Cowen PT $170 (Mar) |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | Networking Equipment | ~$440B | ~+46% (Jul) | +2.8% on 2 Oct; climbing AI networking orders | Buy; PT verify |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semis – Networking/Custom AI | verify | verify | +3.35% on 2 Oct; AI chip funding headline | Buy; PT verify |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | Semis – Optical DSP/Custom AI | verify | verify | Optical DSPs; top optics ETF holding | Buy; PT verify |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Semis – Connectivity | verify | verify | Active electrical cables, AI scale-out | verify |
| FN | Fabrinet | Optical Manufacturing (EMS) | verify | verify | Builds transceivers for optics leaders | verify |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | Optical Transceivers | verify | verify | Hyperscaler transceiver ramp | verify |
| ALAB | Astera Labs, Inc. | Semis – AI Connectivity | verify | verify | PCIe/CXL scale-up fabric | verify |
| CLS | Celestica Inc. | EMS – Networking Hardware | verify | verify | Hyperscaler switch builds | verify |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | Semis – Analog/Optical | verify | verify | 800G/1.6T optical drivers | verify |
| NOK | Nokia Oyj | Optical/Telecom Networking | verify | verify | Data-centre interconnect via Infinera | verify |
| ETF LYTE | Optical networking ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics; +4% on 1 Oct | – |
| ETF LAZR | Optical/photonics ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics | – |
| ETF IGN | iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Networking equipment | – |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Markets & breadth pulled back yesterday on day 4 of the the bounce, still choppy market earnings season starts next week which should start to provide some good catalysts.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$PLTR
$SOXX
$HPQ
$DRAM
$GLW
$TQQQ
$BE
$TTD
$ORCL
$PATH
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 19
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 17
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 24
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 177
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$USO: No trend
$GLD: Downtrend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 84k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
THEME 1: AI Chip Equipment & Fab Capex Supercycle
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Fab Equipment | verify | ~+100% | +10.95% wk; Morgan Stanley raised 2027 EPS est. to $20.92 | Buy; PT verify |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Semis – Etch/Deposition | ~$420B | verify | +10.24% wk; Micron memory capex read-across; earnings late Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | Semis – Process Control | verify | +62.6% | +10.10% wk; JPM top US equipment pick | Buy; PT verify |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Semis – Lithography | verify | verify | Q3 results mid-Oct; EUV order intake | Buy; PT verify |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | Semis – Foundry | verify | verify | Sept monthly sales and Q3 earnings mid-Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | Semis – Memory | ~$1.2T | verify | FQ4 rev $54.2B (+379% YoY); FQ1 guide $61.5B; capex step-up | Buy; Needham PT $1,650 (Jun) |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | Semis – Test Equipment | verify | verify | HBM/AI accelerator test demand | verify |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation Inc. | Semis – Inspection/Metrology | verify | verify | Advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| NVMI | Nova Ltd. | Semis – Metrology | verify | verify | Memory/logic node transitions | verify |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | Semis – Materials/Consumables | verify | verify | Wafer starts rising with capacity | verify |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | Semis – Subsystems/Lasers | verify | verify | Tool-builder supply chain | verify |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | Semis – OSAT/Advanced Packaging | verify | verify | HBM/CoWoS-style packaging capacity | verify |
| FORM | FormFactor, Inc. | Semis – Probe Cards | verify | verify | HBM probe card demand | verify |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Cleaning | verify | verify | Memory fab expansion | verify |
| CAMT | Camtek Ltd. | Semis – Inspection | verify | verify | HBM/advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| ETF SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | ETF | ~$74B AUM | +59.07% (18 Sep) | Broad semis incl. equipment | – |
| ETF SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Broad semis | – |
| ETF PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-ish weight semis | – |
| ETF XSD | SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-weight semis | – |
Theme 2: AI Optical Networking & Data-Centre Interconnect
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Optical Components | ~$74B | >+100% | Bernstein Outperform; FQ1 guide $1.225–1.275B | Mixed Buy/Hold; TD Cowen PT $675 |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | Optical Components/Lasers | ~$50B | verify | PhotonLink launch; +10% on 1 Oct | Buy; Bernstein PT $350, TD Cowen $330 |
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Optical Networking | ~$52B | +59% | Bernstein PT $440; Evercore upgrade, PT $550 | Buy; PT verify |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | Fibre/Specialty Glass | verify | >+100% | +8.31% wk; Nvidia/Amazon fibre deals | Buy; PT verify |
| ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | Data-Centre Networking | verify | verify | Bernstein Outperform initiation | Buy; TD Cowen PT $170 (Mar) |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | Networking Equipment | ~$440B | ~+46% (Jul) | +2.8% on 2 Oct; climbing AI networking orders | Buy; PT verify |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semis – Networking/Custom AI | verify | verify | +3.35% on 2 Oct; AI chip funding headline | Buy; PT verify |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | Semis – Optical DSP/Custom AI | verify | verify | Optical DSPs; top optics ETF holding | Buy; PT verify |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Semis – Connectivity | verify | verify | Active electrical cables, AI scale-out | verify |
| FN | Fabrinet | Optical Manufacturing (EMS) | verify | verify | Builds transceivers for optics leaders | verify |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | Optical Transceivers | verify | verify | Hyperscaler transceiver ramp | verify |
| ALAB | Astera Labs, Inc. | Semis – AI Connectivity | verify | verify | PCIe/CXL scale-up fabric | verify |
| CLS | Celestica Inc. | EMS – Networking Hardware | verify | verify | Hyperscaler switch builds | verify |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | Semis – Analog/Optical | verify | verify | 800G/1.6T optical drivers | verify |
| NOK | Nokia Oyj | Optical/Telecom Networking | verify | verify | Data-centre interconnect via Infinera | verify |
| ETF LYTE | Optical networking ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics; +4% on 1 Oct | – |
| ETF LAZR | Optical/photonics ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics | – |
| ETF IGN | iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Networking equipment | – |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Breadth readings getting a bit more bullish but still a choppy market. Today will be day 4 of the move so not a good time to enter overall unless EP9’s SIPs with strong catalysts.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): $MMED $PLTR $AAPL $HPQ $META $GDX
Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 18
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – Normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -3
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 22
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 190
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: No trend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Uptrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$USO: Downtrend
$GLD: Downtrend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
2%- sectors yesterday:
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Bitcoin: 86k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
THEME 1: AI Chip Equipment & Fab Capex Supercycle
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Fab Equipment | verify | ~+100% | +10.95% wk; Morgan Stanley raised 2027 EPS est. to $20.92 | Buy; PT verify |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Semis – Etch/Deposition | ~$420B | verify | +10.24% wk; Micron memory capex read-across; earnings late Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | Semis – Process Control | verify | +62.6% | +10.10% wk; JPM top US equipment pick | Buy; PT verify |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Semis – Lithography | verify | verify | Q3 results mid-Oct; EUV order intake | Buy; PT verify |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | Semis – Foundry | verify | verify | Sept monthly sales and Q3 earnings mid-Oct | Buy; PT verify |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | Semis – Memory | ~$1.2T | verify | FQ4 rev $54.2B (+379% YoY); FQ1 guide $61.5B; capex step-up | Buy; Needham PT $1,650 (Jun) |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | Semis – Test Equipment | verify | verify | HBM/AI accelerator test demand | verify |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation Inc. | Semis – Inspection/Metrology | verify | verify | Advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| NVMI | Nova Ltd. | Semis – Metrology | verify | verify | Memory/logic node transitions | verify |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | Semis – Materials/Consumables | verify | verify | Wafer starts rising with capacity | verify |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | Semis – Subsystems/Lasers | verify | verify | Tool-builder supply chain | verify |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | Semis – OSAT/Advanced Packaging | verify | verify | HBM/CoWoS-style packaging capacity | verify |
| FORM | FormFactor, Inc. | Semis – Probe Cards | verify | verify | HBM probe card demand | verify |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | Semis – Wafer Cleaning | verify | verify | Memory fab expansion | verify |
| CAMT | Camtek Ltd. | Semis – Inspection | verify | verify | HBM/advanced packaging inspection | verify |
| ETF SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | ETF | ~$74B AUM | +59.07% (18 Sep) | Broad semis incl. equipment | – |
| ETF SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Broad semis | – |
| ETF PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-ish weight semis | – |
| ETF XSD | SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Equal-weight semis | – |
Theme 2: AI Optical Networking & Data-Centre Interconnect
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Optical Components | ~$74B | >+100% | Bernstein Outperform; FQ1 guide $1.225–1.275B | Mixed Buy/Hold; TD Cowen PT $675 |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | Optical Components/Lasers | ~$50B | verify | PhotonLink launch; +10% on 1 Oct | Buy; Bernstein PT $350, TD Cowen $330 |
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Optical Networking | ~$52B | +59% | Bernstein PT $440; Evercore upgrade, PT $550 | Buy; PT verify |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | Fibre/Specialty Glass | verify | >+100% | +8.31% wk; Nvidia/Amazon fibre deals | Buy; PT verify |
| ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | Data-Centre Networking | verify | verify | Bernstein Outperform initiation | Buy; TD Cowen PT $170 (Mar) |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | Networking Equipment | ~$440B | ~+46% (Jul) | +2.8% on 2 Oct; climbing AI networking orders | Buy; PT verify |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semis – Networking/Custom AI | verify | verify | +3.35% on 2 Oct; AI chip funding headline | Buy; PT verify |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | Semis – Optical DSP/Custom AI | verify | verify | Optical DSPs; top optics ETF holding | Buy; PT verify |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Semis – Connectivity | verify | verify | Active electrical cables, AI scale-out | verify |
| FN | Fabrinet | Optical Manufacturing (EMS) | verify | verify | Builds transceivers for optics leaders | verify |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | Optical Transceivers | verify | verify | Hyperscaler transceiver ramp | verify |
| ALAB | Astera Labs, Inc. | Semis – AI Connectivity | verify | verify | PCIe/CXL scale-up fabric | verify |
| CLS | Celestica Inc. | EMS – Networking Hardware | verify | verify | Hyperscaler switch builds | verify |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | Semis – Analog/Optical | verify | verify | 800G/1.6T optical drivers | verify |
| NOK | Nokia Oyj | Optical/Telecom Networking | verify | verify | Data-centre interconnect via Infinera | verify |
| ETF LYTE | Optical networking ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics; +4% on 1 Oct | – |
| ETF LAZR | Optical/photonics ETF (launched 2026) | ETF | verify | verify | Pure-play optics | – |
| ETF IGN | iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF | ETF | verify | verify | Networking equipment | – |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Breadth readings getting a bit more bullish but still a choppy market. EP9’s SIPs with strong catalysts
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): $AMKR $PLTR $GLW $POET $ALAB
