Time of entry – Trade 1: 15:32 BST Trade 2: 15:57 BST
21 ADR – 18.33
Catalyst / setup – Earnings miss opened approx 6% down, WSS setup below all MAs and a declining 200 sma
Consensus had already been trimmed heading in — Zacks flagged a 2.9% cut to the Street EPS estimate in the 30 days before the print (from ~€3.27 toward the ~€2.80 that was ultimately missed), meaning the bar was already moving down. The actual miss still slipped below even that lowered bar, but the direction of the surprise (soft EPS, margin strength) was not new information to the market.
The pattern of “beat/strong-margin quarter followed by a cautious growth guide” has now repeated: Q1 2026 saw a >12% share decline despite a strong beat, on guidance caution. This is the second consecutive quarter of that same dynamic, which makes it a confirmation of an already-recognized pattern rather than new information about the business.
Result – Trade 1: 1st arrow on the 5 min chart I front ran a bearish MACD cross and got stopped out for 1pt / 100% loss. Trade 2: 2nd arrow on the 5 min chart bearish MACD cross, closed 50% on a approx 1% move at 491.69 (16:34 BST), didnt get the 2% move during normal market hours so too another 50% off at 488.21 (20:37 BST) as 24 hour markets can be very choppy so risk management. Overnight it went past the 2% so took another 33% off at 483.10 (06/08/2026 06:13), remainder left as runner.
06/08/26 20:50 – Scaled 50% of runner @ 475.28
Takeways –
Front ran the 1st trade as I had to go out, never front run, if setup is not there with the relevant conditions always skip the trade
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -7
Stocks above 40PMA: 52
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 351
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: Uptrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
None
2%- sectors yesterday:
$JETS -2.65%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLK $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $IBB
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $TLT $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: 20% study still over 100, choppy conditions and Friday with payrolls numbers, wont take any trades today will just observe the market.
Catalyst / setup – Gapping up 18% at the open on fair results set against a low bar, targets had been cut aggressively in the weeks leading up to the results.
Gapped up into the 50sma entered once rejected with a tight SL of 7 cents.
Result – Closed, scaled 50% @ 10.91 and another 50% @ 10.80 and runner got stopped for a small loss. 327% profit.
Catalyst / setup – Gapped down below the 200 sma on earnings and setup a WSS around the 200 sma.
The revenue miss ends a run of clean beats and happened against a valuation (~46x forward P/E pre-print) that assumed continued flawless execution — that vulnerability is now visible in real numbers, not just in theory.
Thesis looking to enter around the 200 sma short for a WSS setup
Result – As you can see from the 5min chart above, I entered on hope, there was nothing in the 5 min chart action for me to enter the market with a short trade, I didnt let it set up it was just a hope trade.
As I didnt have a hard stop only a mental one I ended up closing out at 249.86 from approx a 250% loss.
Takeways –
I entered on hope there was no short entry on the 5min chart, the stock closed at highs of the day approx +7%, when I entered the stock was above a rising 10 sma with MACD on the 5 min chart, not a signal to short.
I was exhausted mentally & physically the only reason I can think of for not waiting for the setup to trigger and not sizing my position correctly so I can only lose max 100%, instead I lost 250%.
The 200sma on the daily is still in a uptrend and the stock hugged the upper BB on the 5min chart sign of a strong stock making a move.
No re-entry after the stop-out, despite wanting one: “even though I wanted the trade to work short I never re-entered even though I wanted to, I recognised the strong trend up and didn’t make the same mistake again, the short trade was not there.”
Catalyst / setup – SIP (stock in play): Gapping down 9% after earnings, the earnings we’re actually quite good but skewed by “The miss was driven by $2.40 billion in charges “related to legal proceedings” and $1.18 billion in severance tied to the May 2026 layoff of ~8,000 employees.”
“The headline “miss” is almost entirely an optics function of two disclosed, non-recurring charges. Strip them out and the quarter’s underlying profitability would have modestly beaten consensus. This is a textbook case of EPS optics requiring decomposition before drawing a conclusion about operational deterioration.”
Based on the above low risk entry expecting it to get bought. Catalyst news related gap down probably over done.
Result – Still running, scaled 50% after 1% move at @ 535.48 and another 50% @ 538.40, didn’t reach 2% scale by the close but as 24 hour market scaled early as after hours markets can be choppy. Free runner still running trade currently at approx 120% profit.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 20
Stocks above 40PMA: 54
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 369
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: Uptrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
None
2%- sectors yesterday:
$TAN -3.93%
$XTL -2.60%
$XLE -2.07%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $IBB
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 65k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Bullish
Are breakouts working: Most pulled back yesterday, expected with 20% study elevated & indices up 4 days in a row
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively expect some pause 20% bullish study now extremely elevated at 237, highest reading for a longtime.
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Yesterday was a neutral breadth day but a lot of stocks pulled back during the day, with a very elevated 20% study would only be looking to take anything long with a big cat, any WSS trades will be treated as day trades with small runner left running overnight.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – very high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 45
Stocks above 40PMA: 56
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 374
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
$SMH +5.55%
$XLK +4.98%
$IGV +4.70%
$TAN +4.16%
$HACK +4.03%
$XTL +3.98%
$IYT +2.29%
$IBB +2.28%
$JETS +2.23%
2%- sectors yesterday:
None
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $IBB
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $HACK $IGV
Lagging – $TLT $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Bullish
Are breakouts working: Yes
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Yes but the 20% study bullish is at 145 so expect some pause or back fill in the coming days
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Yesterday was a 700+ bullish breadth day with a 500+ bullish breadth the day before, $SPY and $DIA hit all time highs. Focus EP9 & SIPs
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – very high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 17
Stocks above 40PMA: 53
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 302
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
$JETS +4.44%
$TAN +3.87%
$IGV +3.00%
$XTL +2.73%
$HACK +2.68%
$XLI +1.85%
$RTH +1.56%
$XLK +1.53%
$KRE +1.31%
$IYT +1.17%
$XLB +1.15%
1%- sectors yesterday:
$XLe -1.28%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLK $IBB
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 63k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers
BUYPT est. $270+
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
AI Server Systems
~$30B
+est. +80%
GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind
BUYPT est. $60+
NET
Cloudflare Inc.
AI Edge / Security
~$90B
~+est.
Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion
BUYPT est. $300+
⬦ Theme ETFs
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductor Basket
—
+85.7%
Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL
—
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
AI Cloud Basket
—
~flat
CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names
—
VPN
Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra
Data Center REIT
—
—
Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators
—
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Some
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Maybe
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain although we got a 500+ bullish breadth day yesterday with broad participation so could be the start of something
Fridays market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -14
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 313
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors Friday:
$XLY +3.29%
$RTH +2.96%
$XTL +1.57%
$IGV +1.36%
$HACK +1.20%
$XLE +1.00%
1%- sectors Friday:
$XLB -2.34%
$IBB -1.87%
$JETS -1.26%
$TAN -1.02%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLF $XLE
Lagging – $XLK $XLI
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 62k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
