Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 17

Fridays market: Money entering the market – Normal buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -20

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 21

VIX: 15

52 week highs (US common stocks): 192

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX Uptrend

$QQQ: Uptrend

$SPY: No trend

$RSP: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: No trend

$SQQQ: Downtrend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Downtrend

$USO: No trend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors Friday:

• $TAN +2.28%
• $SMH +2.07%
• $XTL +2.07%

2%- sectors Friday:

• None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLI $XLK
• Lagging – $XLF $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $SMH $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $IYT

Bitcoin: 86k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

THEME 1: AI Chip Equipment & Fab Capex Supercycle

Theme 2: AI Optical Networking & Data-Centre Interconnect

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: Breadth readings getting a bit more bullish but still a choppy market. EP9’s SIPs with strong catalysts

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$NET
$MSFT
$PLTR
$MRNA
$META

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 16

Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Normal selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -58

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 19

VIX: 16

52 week highs (US common stocks): 174

Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.

The key difference from the template.

The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.

Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.

Indices:

$SOXX Uptrend

$QQQ: Uptrend

$SPY: No trend

$RSP: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: Uptrend

$SQQQ: Downtrend

$UVIX: No trend

$TLT: Downtrend

$USO: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: Downtrend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• None

2%- sectors yesterday:

• $IBB -2.17%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $IBB $XLK
• Lagging – $XLF $XLB

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $SMH $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $IYT

Bitcoin: 86k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

THEME 1: Agentic AI CPU & Compute Squeeze:

THEME 2: Agentic AI Platforms & Agent-Commerce Winners:

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: Small increase in positive breadth readings yesterday and some tech names trying to go while megacap tech had a generally weak day, looking like a green open yesterday was a day 1 in some names, see if we get any follow through or just more chop.

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$AMKR
$PLTR
$TQQQ
$SOXL
$AMZN
$IONQ
$DRAM
$RGTI
$FCEL
$MRVL
$META