Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 40
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – Extreme selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 9
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 45
VIX: 28
52 week highs (US common stocks): 240
Seasonality:
The historical case: The post-midterm window is the cycle’s strongest stretch. From the 31 October close of a midterm year to the following 30 April, the S&P 500 has been positive in all 19 cycles since 1950, averaging nearly 15%.
The base rate is strong. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.7% gain in November, tied with December for the best month according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In midterm years the Almanac ranks November as the second best month for the DJIA and S&P 500. November also starts the “Best Six Months”. Small caps come into favour in November but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year.
The odds favour a positive month, and November–April has the best risk/reward of the four-year cycle. But 2026 starts closer to the highs than most midterm years. Expect smaller gains than the averages, and leadership may sit outside mega-cap tech. A tech-led drawdown in November is entirely possible and wouldn’t break the pattern. History says weak patches before or around the vote have usually been bought.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: No trend
$RSP: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Uptrend
$USO: Downtrend
$TNX: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: Downtrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
- None
2%- sectors yesterday:
- $SMH -11.21%
- $XLK -8.00%
- $XTL -7.84%
- $HACK -6.88%
- $IBB -5.04%
- $IGV -4.39%
- $XLI -4.12%
- $XLY -3.83%
- $JETS -3.73%
- $TAN -3.71%
- $IYT -3.54%
- $XHB -3.41%
- $XLE -2.98%
- $XLB -2.91%
- $XLF -2.87%
- $XLV -2.50%
- $KRE -2.46%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLV $XLP
- Lagging – $XLI $XLK
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $RTH $TLT
- Lagging – $HACK $SMH
Bitcoin: 76k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Theme 1: Healthcare Leadership, GLP-1 and Big Biopharma Rotation
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | Pharma / Obesity-Diabetes | ~$1.2T | ~+19% | Q3 beat and raise; retatrutide Ph3 vs Ozempic; Foundayo ramp | Buy; Street PT ~$1,330 |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Biotech | ~$95B | ~+19% est. | Q3 beat; +13% on the week | Buy; PT — |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | Pharma / Immunology | ~$400B | — | Q3 reported 30 Oct; Skyrizi/Rinvoq | Buy; PT — |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | Pharma / Medtech | ~$500B | — | Defensive bid; oncology growth | Buy; PT — |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | Pharma | ~$250B | — | Keytruda subQ transition | Hold/Buy; PT — |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | Biotech / Obesity | ~$170B | — | MariTide obesity readouts; Q3 due early Nov | Hold/Buy; PT — |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | Biotech | ~$120B | — | Non-opioid pain and CF franchise | Buy; PT — |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Biotech / HIV | ~$150B | — | Lenacapavir PrEP launch | Buy; PT — |
| ALNY | Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Biotech / RNAi | ~$60B | — | Amvuttra ATTR-CM growth; joining Nasdaq 100 | Buy; PT — |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Medtech / Robotics | ~$190B | — | da Vinci 5 placements | Buy; PT — |
| BSX | Boston Scientific Corporation | Medtech | ~$150B | — | Farapulse electrophysiology growth | Buy; PT — |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | Life-Science Tools | ~$200B | — | Recovery in pharma spending | Buy; PT — |
| HCA | HCA Healthcare, Inc. | Hospitals | ~$100B | — | Volume and policy tailwinds | Buy; PT — |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | Drug Distribution | ~$90B | — | GLP-1 volumes flowing through distribution | Buy; PT — |
| CDNA | CareDx, Inc. | Diagnostics / Transplant | ~$5B | — | Top gainer last week: +22.22% to 87.41 | Buy; PT — |
| ETFs | XLV · XBI · IBB · VHT · XPH |
Theme 2: Hormuz Oil Shock and Refining Super-Margins
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Integrated Oil | ~$730B | ~+49% | Q3 beat; $20B 2027 buyback | Buy; PT ~$173–175 |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | Integrated Oil | ~$330B | — | Q3 adjusted EPS $5.28; record refinery throughput | Buy; PT — |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | E&P | ~$140B | — | Q3 due early Nov; leveraged to $100 oil | Buy; PT — |
| EOG | EOG Resources, Inc. | E&P | ~$75B | — | Q3 due early Nov | Buy/Hold; PT — |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | E&P | ~$55B | — | Permian volumes; high beta to oil | Hold; PT — |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | E&P (Permian) | ~$50B | — | Capital returns at $100 oil | Buy; PT — |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corporation | E&P | ~$25B | — | Q3 due early Nov | Buy/Hold; PT — |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Refining | ~$65B | — | Crack spreads at extremes | Buy; PT — |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | Refining | ~$55B | — | Diesel margins | Buy; PT — |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Refining / Midstream | ~$60B | — | Refining plus chemicals | Buy; PT — |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | Refining (high beta) | ~$5B | — | Most leveraged to crack spreads | Hold; PT — |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | LNG Export | ~$55B | — | Qatar LNG disruption | Buy; PT — |
| SLB | SLB Limited | Oilfield Services | ~$60B | — | Non-Gulf supply build-out | Buy; PT — |
| HAL | Halliburton Company | Oilfield Services | ~$25B | — | North American activity | Buy; PT — |
| MEOH | Methanex Corporation | Chemicals / Methanol | ~$5B | — | +14.04% to 71.57 on the week | Buy; PT — |
| ETFs | XLE · XOP · OIH · CRAK · USO |
What type of market are we in: Bearish, big sell off yesterday weakness has spread from the Tech & AI trade to the rest of the market. A +1200 selling day on 4% bearish study, which will likely lead to a bear market rally in the coming days.
Key things for this week: Nov 3: US midterm elections, with a possible shift in Congressional control; Nov 6: October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate; and AMD reports on 3 Nov. A tech bounce after AMD would be the main threat to the healthcare rotation.
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No, market would favour quicker trades if we get a bear market rally,
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No, also too risky at these levels after such a big flush down.
Should I be trading: Only short term bounce trades using 5m ROE
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment
Last Updated on November 6, 2026 by PeteStilgoe