Tag: Short

$SPOT short 05/08/2026

Entry price – Trade 1: 495.05, Trade 2: 496.43

SL – Trade 1: 498.25, Trade 2: 500.25

Risk – Trade 1: 3.20, Trade 2: 3.82

Time of entry – Trade 1: 15:32 BST Trade 2: 15:57 BST

21 ADR – 18.33

Catalyst / setup – Earnings miss opened approx 6% down, WSS setup below all MAs and a declining 200 sma

Consensus had already been trimmed heading in — Zacks flagged a 2.9% cut to the Street EPS estimate in the 30 days before the print (from ~€3.27 toward the ~€2.80 that was ultimately missed), meaning the bar was already moving down. The actual miss still slipped below even that lowered bar, but the direction of the surprise (soft EPS, margin strength) was not new information to the market.

The pattern of “beat/strong-margin quarter followed by a cautious growth guide” has now repeated: Q1 2026 saw a >12% share decline despite a strong beat, on guidance caution. This is the second consecutive quarter of that same dynamic, which makes it a confirmation of an already-recognized pattern rather than new information about the business.

Result – Trade 1: 1st arrow on the 5 min chart I front ran a bearish MACD cross and got stopped out for 1pt / 100% loss. Trade 2: 2nd arrow on the 5 min chart bearish MACD cross, closed 50% on a approx 1% move at 491.69 (16:34 BST), didnt get the 2% move during normal market hours so too another 50% off at 488.21 (20:37 BST) as 24 hour markets can be very choppy so risk management. Overnight it went past the 2% so took another 33% off at 483.10 (06/08/2026 06:13), remainder left as runner.

Trade 2: 06/08/26 20:50 – Scaled 50% of runner @ 475.28

Trade 2: 10/08/26 14:01 – Runner stopped out @ 495.19

Trade 1 closed -100%

Trade 2 closed approx +200%

Takeways –

  • Front ran the 1st trade as I had to go out, never front run, if setup is not there with the relevant conditions always skip the trade

$VRT short 03/08/2026

Entry price – 245.93

SL – Mental stop around 248 just above 200sma

Risk – 2 bucks approx

Time of entry – 14:56 BST

Catalyst / setup – Gapped down below the 200 sma on earnings and setup a WSS around the 200 sma.

The revenue miss ends a run of clean beats and happened against a valuation (~46x forward P/E pre-print) that assumed continued flawless execution — that vulnerability is now visible in real numbers, not just in theory.

Thesis looking to enter around the 200 sma short for a WSS setup

Result – As you can see from the 5min chart above, I entered on hope, there was nothing in the 5 min chart action for me to enter the market with a short trade, I didnt let it set up it was just a hope trade.

As I didnt have a hard stop only a mental one I ended up closing out at 249.86 from approx a 250% loss.

Takeways –

  • I entered on hope there was no short entry on the 5min chart, the stock closed at highs of the day approx +7%, when I entered the stock was above a rising 10 sma with MACD on the 5 min chart, not a signal to short.
  • I was exhausted mentally & physically the only reason I can think of for not waiting for the setup to trigger and not sizing my position correctly so I can only lose max 100%, instead I lost 250%.
  • The 200sma on the daily is still in a uptrend and the stock hugged the upper BB on the 5min chart sign of a strong stock making a move.
  • No re-entry after the stop-out, despite wanting one: “even though I wanted the trade to work short I never re-entered even though I wanted to, I recognised the strong trend up and didn’t make the same mistake again, the short trade was not there.”