Catalyst / setup – Thematic, super cycle, bullish earnings in the sector and bullish breadth increasing, this is a ETF to give me broad cover in the sector
Result – Closed for a blended +0.51R.
14 Aug 20:56 BST – trimmed 50% at 57.14, about +1R on that half.
31 Aug – remaining runner stopped at 54.25 (stop trailed under the 21 SMA from 27 Aug); price came all the way back to the entry, so the runner was essentially breakeven.
Catalyst / setup – SIP (stock in play): Gapping down 9% after earnings, the earnings we’re actually quite good but skewed by “The miss was driven by $2.40 billion in charges “related to legal proceedings” and $1.18 billion in severance tied to the May 2026 layoff of ~8,000 employees.”
“The headline “miss” is almost entirely an optics function of two disclosed, non-recurring charges. Strip them out and the quarter’s underlying profitability would have modestly beaten consensus. This is a textbook case of EPS optics requiring decomposition before drawing a conclusion about operational deterioration.”
Based on the above low risk entry expecting it to get bought. Catalyst news related gap down probably over done.
Result – Closed, scaled 50% after 1% move at @ 535.48 and another 50% @ 538.40, didn’t reach 2% scale by the close but as 24 hour market scaled early as after hours markets can be choppy.
Runner stopped 18/08/2026 @ 14:27 at 557.21 approx +120% profit.
Time of entry – Trade 1: 15:32 BST Trade 2: 15:57 BST
21 ADR – 18.33
Catalyst / setup – Earnings miss opened approx 6% down, WSS setup below all MAs and a declining 200 sma
Consensus had already been trimmed heading in — Zacks flagged a 2.9% cut to the Street EPS estimate in the 30 days before the print (from ~€3.27 toward the ~€2.80 that was ultimately missed), meaning the bar was already moving down. The actual miss still slipped below even that lowered bar, but the direction of the surprise (soft EPS, margin strength) was not new information to the market.
The pattern of “beat/strong-margin quarter followed by a cautious growth guide” has now repeated: Q1 2026 saw a >12% share decline despite a strong beat, on guidance caution. This is the second consecutive quarter of that same dynamic, which makes it a confirmation of an already-recognized pattern rather than new information about the business.
Result – Trade 1: 1st arrow on the 5 min chart I front ran a bearish MACD cross and got stopped out for 1pt / 100% loss. Trade 2: 2nd arrow on the 5 min chart bearish MACD cross, closed 50% on a approx 1% move at 491.69 (16:34 BST), didnt get the 2% move during normal market hours so too another 50% off at 488.21 (20:37 BST) as 24 hour markets can be very choppy so risk management. Overnight it went past the 2% so took another 33% off at 483.10 (06/08/2026 06:13), remainder left as runner.
Catalyst / setup – Gapping up 18% at the open on fair results set against a low bar, targets had been cut aggressively in the weeks leading up to the results.
Gapped up into the 50sma entered once rejected with a tight SL of 7 cents.
Result – Closed, scaled 50% @ 10.91 and another 50% @ 10.80 and runner got stopped for a small loss. 327% profit.
Catalyst / setup – Gapped down below the 200 sma on earnings and setup a WSS around the 200 sma.
The revenue miss ends a run of clean beats and happened against a valuation (~46x forward P/E pre-print) that assumed continued flawless execution — that vulnerability is now visible in real numbers, not just in theory.
Thesis looking to enter around the 200 sma short for a WSS setup
Result – As you can see from the 5min chart above, I entered on hope, there was nothing in the 5 min chart action for me to enter the market with a short trade, I didnt let it set up it was just a hope trade.
As I didnt have a hard stop only a mental one I ended up closing out at 249.86 from approx a 250% loss.
Takeways –
I entered on hope there was no short entry on the 5min chart, the stock closed at highs of the day approx +7%, when I entered the stock was above a rising 10 sma with MACD on the 5 min chart, not a signal to short.
I was exhausted mentally & physically the only reason I can think of for not waiting for the setup to trigger and not sizing my position correctly so I can only lose max 100%, instead I lost 250%.
The 200sma on the daily is still in a uptrend and the stock hugged the upper BB on the 5min chart sign of a strong stock making a move.
No re-entry after the stop-out, despite wanting one: “even though I wanted the trade to work short I never re-entered even though I wanted to, I recognised the strong trend up and didn’t make the same mistake again, the short trade was not there.”
