Catalyst / setup – Thematic, super cycle, bullish earnings in the sector and bullish breadth increasing, this is a ETF to give me broad cover in the sector
Result – Closed for a blended +0.51R.
14 Aug 20:56 BST – trimmed 50% at 57.14, about +1R on that half.
31 Aug – remaining runner stopped at 54.25 (stop trailed under the 21 SMA from 27 Aug); price came all the way back to the entry, so the runner was essentially breakeven.
Time of entry – Trade 1: 15:32 BST Trade 2: 15:57 BST
21 ADR – 18.33
Catalyst / setup – Earnings miss opened approx 6% down, WSS setup below all MAs and a declining 200 sma
Consensus had already been trimmed heading in — Zacks flagged a 2.9% cut to the Street EPS estimate in the 30 days before the print (from ~€3.27 toward the ~€2.80 that was ultimately missed), meaning the bar was already moving down. The actual miss still slipped below even that lowered bar, but the direction of the surprise (soft EPS, margin strength) was not new information to the market.
The pattern of “beat/strong-margin quarter followed by a cautious growth guide” has now repeated: Q1 2026 saw a >12% share decline despite a strong beat, on guidance caution. This is the second consecutive quarter of that same dynamic, which makes it a confirmation of an already-recognized pattern rather than new information about the business.
Result – Trade 1: 1st arrow on the 5 min chart I front ran a bearish MACD cross and got stopped out for 1pt / 100% loss. Trade 2: 2nd arrow on the 5 min chart bearish MACD cross, closed 50% on a approx 1% move at 491.69 (16:34 BST), didnt get the 2% move during normal market hours so too another 50% off at 488.21 (20:37 BST) as 24 hour markets can be very choppy so risk management. Overnight it went past the 2% so took another 33% off at 483.10 (06/08/2026 06:13), remainder left as runner.
Entered WSS setup created after negative earnings reaction, the earnings were strong but looks like the street wanted to see a raised full year guidance.
Entered on break of 1st 3 min bar lower but no real setup on the 3 min chart, got stopped out.
Result – 1pt full loss
2nd trade (2nd arrow):
Entry price – 65.42
SL – 65.7
Risk – 28 cents
Time of entry – 15:30
Catalyst / setup – WSS short on the daily and a retest of yesterdays closing highs on the 3 min chart, buyers couldn’t push through and broke back down.
Result – 0.5pt win, closed runner EOD as didnt have enough cushion to carry in to overnight session. (24hr market)
Had it flagged as a possible short failing to claim 50 SMA on daily below. Tracked $USO & when that started to breakdown entered on below when it failed to get above the declining 10 EMA. Scaled 50% on breach of lower BB.
On the daily above failed to reclaim the 50 sma the day before and opened with a gap down.
Entered on breach of upper BB on heavy volume, then got stopped out when it breached HOD.
Notice how the volume is steadily increasing as opposed to a random massive volume spike which typically suggests exhaustion. This was a poor entry from me but one I will learn from. Also the over all market was in a general up day so swimming against the tide.
Entered when 2nd bar couldn’t break above the opening bar on high volume. Scaled 50% on the opening gap fill where it reversed and got stopped out when it broke above HOD.
Later in the day you can see it breached the upper BB on 2x the avg volume, I wasn’t online but if you had taken that you would have made a low risk 2$ approx.
