Overall market trend: Bullish phase – day 20
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -70
Stocks above 40PMA: 30
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 153
Seasonality: September is broadly weak, and midterm years make it slightly weaker. Since 1950, September averages about -0.6% across all years, but in midterm years specifically it drops to roughly -0.8%, compared to +0.9% for October and +1.9% for November in all years. Other analyses using different lookback windows put the midterm-September average anywhere from -0.82% with a win rate of just 47.4% to slightly better depending on the exact years sampled.
The bigger story is the September–October low, not September alone. Across the 19 midterm years since 1950, market lows have clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election, and the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single one of those 19 midterm elections. Drawdowns in this window have ranged widely — a roughly 20% decline in 2002, a shallower pullback in 2010, ~10% in 2014, and ~11.5% in 2018.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Uptrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors Yesterday:
- $XLE +2.04%
2%- sectors Yesterday:
- $JETS -2.33%
- $TAN -2.22%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $IBB $XLE
- Lagging – $XLU $XLI
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $HACK $SMH
- Lagging – $TAN $JETS
Bitcoin: Reclaimed the 200sma at 79k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Top thematic stocks:
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | SanDisk Corp | Semiconductors/Data Storage | ~$60B | +570%+ | HBF standard launch, NAND shortage, investor-day FY28-30 targets | Buy; PT ~$1,500-1,600 |
| MU | Micron Technology | Semiconductors/Memory | ~$155B | +216% | HBM supply locked through CY2026, Q4 FY26 earnings pending | Buy; PT ~$950-1,000 |
| SKHY | SK Hynix (US listing) | Semiconductors/Memory | ~$180B (KRW basis) | +100%+ | RBC Outperform init, HBF standard co-launch with SanDisk | Buy; PT ~$200 |
| WDC | Western Digital | Data Storage | ~$45B | +150%+ | HDD/NAND supply tightness, hyperscaler orders | Buy; PT ~$500-550 |
| STX | Seagate Technology | Data Storage | ~$55B | +180%+ | Record FY26 free cash flow ($3.1B) | Buy; PT ~$950-1,000 |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corp | Semiconductors/AI Compute | ~$4.2T | +30-35% | Q2 FY27 earnings this week (key S&P catalyst) | Strong Buy; PT ~$220-240 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductors | ~$350B | +60-70% | AI GPU roadmap, MI-series ramp | Buy; PT ~$260-280 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors/Custom Silicon | ~$1.5T | +70-80% | Custom AI ASIC demand from hyperscalers | Buy; PT ~$400-420 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | Foundry | ~$1.3T | +40-50% | Advanced node & CoWoS capacity expansion | Strong Buy; PT ~$350-370 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Semicap Equipment | ~$450B | +30-40% | EUV order backlog, memory capex cycle | Buy; PT ~$1,150-1,200 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Semicap Equipment | ~$180B | +50-60% | NAND/DRAM fab equipment orders | Buy; PT ~$150-160 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Semicap Equipment | ~$220B | +30-40% | Memory tool spending recovery | Buy; PT ~$260-280 |
| KLAC | KLA Corp | Semicap Equipment | ~$150B | +50-60% | Process control demand from memory fabs | Buy; PT ~$1,300-1,400 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Semiconductors/Custom Silicon | ~$110B | +40-50% | Custom AI silicon design wins | Buy; PT ~$115-125 |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | AI Cloud/Datacenter Infra | ~$25B | +200%+ | Q2 revenue +454% YoY, $37.5B RPO backlog | Buy; PT ~$150-170 |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | Theme ETF | — | +30-40% | Broad semis exposure | — |
| DRAM | Roundhill Memory ETF | Theme ETF | — | High volatility | Pure-play memory basket | — |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | Theme ETF | — | +35-45% | Broad semis exposure | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Indicies in no trend, 20% study low on both sides bullish & bearish, SIPs and EP9 with strong CATs
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Nothing yet
Last Updated on September 1, 2026 by PeteStilgoe