Overall market trend: Bullish phase – day 18
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -17
Stocks above 40PMA: 46
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 202
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: Downtrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Uptrend
$SQQQ: Uptrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Uptrend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors Yesterday:
- None
2%- sectors Yesterday:
- None
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $IBB $XLE
- Lagging – $XLU $XLI
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $IGV $SMH
- Lagging – $TAN $JETS
Bitcoin: Reclaimed the 200sma at 79k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Top thematic stocks:
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Market Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | SanDisk Corp | Semiconductors/Data Storage | ~$60B | +570%+ | HBF standard launch, NAND shortage, investor-day FY28-30 targets | Buy; PT ~$1,500-1,600 |
| MU | Micron Technology | Semiconductors/Memory | ~$155B | +216% | HBM supply locked through CY2026, Q4 FY26 earnings pending | Buy; PT ~$950-1,000 |
| SKHY | SK Hynix (US listing) | Semiconductors/Memory | ~$180B (KRW basis) | +100%+ | RBC Outperform init, HBF standard co-launch with SanDisk | Buy; PT ~$200 |
| WDC | Western Digital | Data Storage | ~$45B | +150%+ | HDD/NAND supply tightness, hyperscaler orders | Buy; PT ~$500-550 |
| STX | Seagate Technology | Data Storage | ~$55B | +180%+ | Record FY26 free cash flow ($3.1B) | Buy; PT ~$950-1,000 |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corp | Semiconductors/AI Compute | ~$4.2T | +30-35% | Q2 FY27 earnings this week (key S&P catalyst) | Strong Buy; PT ~$220-240 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductors | ~$350B | +60-70% | AI GPU roadmap, MI-series ramp | Buy; PT ~$260-280 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors/Custom Silicon | ~$1.5T | +70-80% | Custom AI ASIC demand from hyperscalers | Buy; PT ~$400-420 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | Foundry | ~$1.3T | +40-50% | Advanced node & CoWoS capacity expansion | Strong Buy; PT ~$350-370 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Semicap Equipment | ~$450B | +30-40% | EUV order backlog, memory capex cycle | Buy; PT ~$1,150-1,200 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Semicap Equipment | ~$180B | +50-60% | NAND/DRAM fab equipment orders | Buy; PT ~$150-160 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Semicap Equipment | ~$220B | +30-40% | Memory tool spending recovery | Buy; PT ~$260-280 |
| KLAC | KLA Corp | Semicap Equipment | ~$150B | +50-60% | Process control demand from memory fabs | Buy; PT ~$1,300-1,400 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Semiconductors/Custom Silicon | ~$110B | +40-50% | Custom AI silicon design wins | Buy; PT ~$115-125 |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | AI Cloud/Datacenter Infra | ~$25B | +200%+ | Q2 revenue +454% YoY, $37.5B RPO backlog | Buy; PT ~$150-170 |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | Theme ETF | — | +30-40% | Broad semis exposure | — |
| DRAM | Roundhill Memory ETF | Theme ETF | — | High volatility | Pure-play memory basket | — |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | Theme ETF | — | +35-45% | Broad semis exposure | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: $QQQ & $IWM in downtrends and markets are in a lull, focus on SIPs & EP9’s with cats
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): $CRWD $NVDA
Last Updated on August 27, 2026 by PeteStilgoe