Catalyst / setup – Oversold / momoburst – Gapped down -5% at the open along with most of the market. Looked for entry on 5 min chart and entered with a momoburst back above 10 sma with MACD confirmation with overall market breadth improving for a low risk SIP.
Result – Trade closed, got the 50% scale after a +1% move at 91.91, 01/09/2026 @ 15:47, 2% scale never triggered and got stopped out for the rest of the position.
Catalyst / setup – SoS / momoburst – Circle Internet Group stock surged more than 12% Wednesday as investors returned to crypto-linked equities amid renewed regulatory activity in Washington and a broader rebound across cryptocurrency markets. Trump hosted crypto execs + SEC/CFTC chairs at the White House.
Result – Trade still running, SIP momo burst so closed 50% at 1% move at 76.55 14:33, and another 50% at 2% at 77.06 14:35, runner left on.
Took another 50% off on todays 10% pop and day 3 of a swing 21/08/2026 14:54 @ 91.20
Notes – Didnt know the catalyst when entered the trade but was in my watchlist, was looking powerful pre market and flew out the gate, 75% scaled in 3 mins. Stop raised to just above break even.
Yesterdays market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -15
Stocks above 40PMA: 51
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 224
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Uptrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: Uptrend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: Uptrend
$SLV: Uptrend
$SLX: Uptrend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
$XLE +4.66%
$HACK +3.27%
$IGV +2.26%
2%- sectors yesterday:
$JETS -3.38%
$SMH -2.28%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $XLB $XLE
Lagging – $XLU $XLK
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
Leading – $RTH $IGV
Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
GPU / AI Chips
~$5.2T
+13.7%
Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B
STR BUYPT $301
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
GPU / AI Chips
~$380B
+141.8%
Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment
Entered on breach of upper BB on heavy volume, then got stopped out when it breached HOD.
Notice how the volume is steadily increasing as opposed to a random massive volume spike which typically suggests exhaustion. This was a poor entry from me but one I will learn from. Also the over all market was in a general up day so swimming against the tide.
Entered when 2nd bar couldn’t break above the opening bar on high volume. Scaled 50% on the opening gap fill where it reversed and got stopped out when it broke above HOD.
Later in the day you can see it breached the upper BB on 2x the avg volume, I wasn’t online but if you had taken that you would have made a low risk 2$ approx.
