Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 22
Fridays market: Money entering the market – Normal buying pressure
TC2000 McClellan: 21
Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 25
VIX: 15
52 week highs (US common stocks): 199
Seasonality: The historical case: October is the midterm year’s best month
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. The midterm effect is large. Across all years, October has been positive nearly 60% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of 0.89%, so the midterm version roughly triples the typical October return. LPL also notes that the improvement from October onwards in midterm years has not depended on which party holds the Presidency.
The key difference from the template.
The midterm Q4 rally has historically started from a deep autumn low, which you’ve already noted. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered an average peak-to-trough decline of about 18% in midterm years. In 2026, the S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, rallied 15% in the second, and gained 2% in the third, and it remains less than 2% below its last record close. The early-year weakness fits the pattern. But there hasn’t been an autumn flush, so the “relief rally off the lows” mechanism has less to work with. Detrick’s comment that the historical Q4 pattern should not be viewed in isolation applies here, especially with yields at 5.3% and oil above $100.
Overall, the seasonal tailwind for October 2026 is real but should be discounted. The usual setup (a washed-out market heading into the vote) is missing. The more likely route to a large Q4 might be a further pullback in October, followed by the post-election rally, rather than a straight run higher from here.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: Uptrend
$SPY: Uptrend
$RSP: Uptrend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: No trend
$USO: No trend
$TNX: No trend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors Friday:
- $HACK +4.32%
- $IBB +3.00%
- $IGV +2.81%
2%- sectors Friday:
- None
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLV $XLK
- Lagging – $XLF $XLB
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $IGV $HACK
- Lagging – $TAN $KRE
Bitcoin: 84k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Clean energy
Crypto
Theme 1: Oil Supply Shock — Refiners, Tankers & Crude Producers
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $433.75 | $134B | +160% | Gulf Coast crack spreads widen on Isaias outages; Q3 earnings late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Refining & Marketing | $455.03 | $135B | +170% | Record refining margins; heavy buybacks; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Energy / Refining & Midstream | $278.18 | $112B | +105% | Refining plus midstream leverage to tight fuel markets; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | Energy / Refining | $84.85 | $9.8B | +200% | Highest-beta refiner; on top bullish-signal scans (RS 98) | Hold; PT: verify |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | Energy / Refining | $121.30 | $22B | +160% | Inland refining margins; Q3 earnings early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $168.94 | $720B | +40% | Brent near $100; Guyana volumes; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | Energy / Integrated Oil | $211.98 | $425B | +40% | Hess/Guyana integration; cash returns; Q3 earnings ~30 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy / Exploration & Production | $134.10 | $167B | +50% | Largest pure-play exploration & production leverage to crude; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| APA | APA Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $46.03 | $16B | +90% | Among the top S&P 500 performers of 2026; Egypt gas and North Sea exposure | Hold; PT: verify |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy / Exploration & Production | $60.11 | $59B | +45% | Permian oil leverage; debt reduction | Hold; PT: verify |
| FRO | Frontline plc | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $56.10 | $12.5B | +150% | Very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates spike on Hormuz rerouting and war-risk premiums | Buy; PT: verify |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers Inc. | Marine Shipping / Product Tankers | $85.14 | $4.3B | +65% | Product tanker demand from diesel arbitrage and Gulf refinery outages | Buy; PT: verify |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | Marine Shipping / Crude & Product Tankers | $119.82 | $5.9B | +145% | Mixed crude and product fleet; spot rate exposure | Buy; PT: verify |
| ECO | Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. | Marine Shipping / Crude Tankers | $93.11 | $3.0B | +200% | #4 bullish signal on 8 Oct (RSI 77, +33% in one month) | Buy; PT: verify |
| TK | Teekay Corporation Ltd. | Marine Shipping / Tankers | $15.27 | $1.3B | +65% | #2 bullish signal on 8 Oct; holding company exposure to tanker spot rates | Hold; PT: verify |
| ETF XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy sector | — | — | +37.6% (to 2 Oct) | Broad energy | — |
| ETF XOP | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Exploration & production | — | — | — | Upstream beta | — |
| ETF CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | Global refiners | — | — | — | Pure refining | — |
| ETF OIH | VanEck Oil Services ETF | Oilfield services | — | — | — | Capital spending follow-through | — |
Theme 2: AI Power & Nuclear Grid Buildout
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector/Industry | Price (9 Oct) | Market Cap (≈) | YTD Return (≈) | Key Catalyst | Analyst Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | Utilities / Nuclear Independent Power Producer | $298.07 | $108B | −15% | Google 890 MW 20-year plus 2.7 GW 15-year deals; Amazon deal; Q3 early Nov | Buy; PT ≈ $342 |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $161.48 | $55B | ≈0% | Reported $4B federal nuclear loan; Cogentrix acquisition | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $378.57 | $17B | ≈0% | Susquehanna nuclear plant supply to an Amazon (AWS) data center campus | Buy; PT: verify |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Independent Power Producer | $107.97 | $23B | −30% | Texas grid data center load; gas fleet expansion | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | Industrials / Power Equipment | $1,004.73 | $273B | +55% | Gas turbine and grid backlog; small modular reactors; Q3 earnings ~22 Oct | Moderate Buy; PT ≈ $1,133 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | Industrials / Fuel Cells | $280.50 | $66B | +180% | Oracle Project Jupiter fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW); Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Utilities / Small Modular Reactors | $34.70 | $5.6B | −50% | Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing milestones; Switch 12 GW agreement | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| SMR | NuScale Power Corporation | Industrials / Small Modular Reactors | $7.20 | $2.2B | −55% | Certified small modular reactor design; deal-flow optionality | Hold; PT: verify |
| CCJ | Cameco Corporation | Materials / Uranium | $88.06 | $38B | ≈0% | Uranium contracting; Westinghouse stake | Buy; PT: verify |
| LEU | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials / Nuclear Fuel Enrichment | $142.44 | $2.7B | −45% | Enrichment capacity for low-enriched and high-assay fuel; Department of Energy funding | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | Industrials / Nuclear Components | $143.83 | $13B | −15% | Naval reactors; advanced reactor fuel | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | Industrials / Grid Construction | $705.94 | $105B | +65% | Transmission buildout for nuclear uprates and data centers; Q3 late Oct | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | Industrials / Electrical Equipment | $429.65 | $168B | +30% | Data center power distribution; Q3 early Nov | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities / Regulated + Renewables | $77.38 | $159B | −3% | Duane Arnold nuclear restart for Google | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | Utilities / Regulated | $102.80 | $46B | +10% | Flipped bullish on the turnaround scans; Gulf South data center load growth | Moderate Buy; PT: verify |
| ETF URA | Global X Uranium ETF | Uranium & nuclear | — | — | — | Nuclear beta | — |
| ETF NLR | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF | Nuclear utilities & fuel | — | — | — | Lower-volatility nuclear | — |
| ETF NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF | Nuclear buildout | — | — | — | Small modular reactors and supply chain | — |
| ETF GRID | First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid ETF | Grid infrastructure | — | — | — | Electrification | — |
| ETF XLU | Utilities Select Sector SPDR | Utilities | — | — | −7.8% (to 2 Oct) | Broad utilities | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Start of earnings season should provide some catalysts and potentially move the market out of the current chop phase. EP9 and SIPs with catalysts.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$PATH
$NOK
$PL
$BE
$SOXX
$META
$TQQQ
$MMED
$DRAM
Last Updated on October 12, 2026 by PeteStilgoe