SA 29/09/2026 – Money leaving the market – High selling pressure

Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 13

Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – High selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: -80

Stocks above 40PMA T2108: 18

VIX: 16

52 week highs (US common stocks): 158

Seasonality: September is broadly weak, and midterm years make it slightly weaker. Since 1950, September averages about -0.6% across all years, but in midterm years specifically it drops to roughly -0.8%, compared to +0.9% for October and +1.9% for November in all years. Other analyses using different lookback windows put the midterm-September average anywhere from -0.82% with a win rate of just 47.4% to slightly better depending on the exact years sampled.

The bigger story is the September–October low, not September alone. Across the 19 midterm years since 1950, market lows have clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election, and the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single one of those 19 midterm elections. Drawdowns in this window have ranged widely — a roughly 20% decline in 2002, a shallower pullback in 2010, ~10% in 2014, and ~11.5% in 2018.

Indices:

$SOXX Uptrend

$QQQ: Uptrend

$SPY: Uptrend

$RSP: Downtrend

$DIA: Downtrend

$IWM: Downtrend

$BTC: No trend

$SQQQ: Downtrend

$UVIX: Downtrend

$TLT: Downtrend

$USO: Downtrend

$GLD: Downtrend

$SLV: No trend

$SLX: Downtrend

2%+ sectors yesterday:

• None

2%- sectors yesterday:

• $TAN -2.41%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $XLE $XLK
• Lagging – $XLU $XLB

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

• Leading – $SMH $HACK
• Lagging – $TAN $IYT

Bitcoin: 84k ish

Themes:

Cybersecurity

Infrastructure

Cloud Computing

Semiconductors

Software

Clean energy

Crypto

THEME 1: Agentic AI CPU & Compute Squeeze:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
INTC	Intel Corporation	Semis – CPUs/Foundry	~$620B	~+220%	Server CPU shortage; reported 10% CPU price hikes; +17% this week	Hold; ~$115
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.	Semis – CPUs/GPUs	~$1.0T	~+185%	10% price hike from Q4; crossed $1T market cap; EPYC share gains	Strong Buy; ~$617
ARM	Arm Holdings plc (ADR)	Semis – CPU IP / AGI CPU	~$320B	~+170%	>$2B AGI CPU customer commitments FY27–28; server royalties doubling	Moderate Buy; ~$306
QCOM	QUALCOMM Incorporated	Semis – CPUs/Data Center	n/v	n/v	Amazon AI data-center deal; +9% on the Muse CPU trade	n/v
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	Semis – GPUs/Grace CPUs	~$5.5T	~+21%	More agents means more compute; SOX +7% since Muse	n/v
TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR)	Semis – Foundry	~$2.2T	~+40%	Wafer price increases flowing through to chip prices; fabs for every CPU designer	n/v
AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	Semis – Custom Silicon/Networking	n/v	n/v	Hyperscaler custom chips; recent price-target raises	n/v
MU	Micron Technology, Inc.	Semis – Memory (DRAM/NAND)	~$1.2T	~+280%	FQ4 earnings Sep 30; Citi models DRAM prices +20% q/q	Buy; Citi PT $1,300
SNDK	Sandisk Corporation	Semis – NAND/Enterprise SSD	~$260B	~+650%	Rosenblatt initiates at Buy; SSD demand from AI inference	Buy; Rosenblatt PT $2,400
DELL	Dell Technologies Inc.	Hardware – AI Servers	~$380B	~+345%	Demand for CPU-dense servers; +5% Friday	n/v
SMCI	Super Micro Computer, Inc.	Hardware – AI Servers	n/v	n/v	Rack-scale server demand	n/v
HPE	Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.	Hardware – Servers	n/v	n/v	Enterprise server refresh	n/v
MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	Semis – Custom Silicon/Optics	n/v	n/v	Custom CPU/accelerator programs	n/v
AMKR	Amkor Technology, Inc.	Semis – Advanced Packaging	n/v	n/v	Packaging is a limit on AGI CPU supply	n/v
LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	Semicap Equipment	n/v	n/v	SEMICON West; chip equipment shortages flagged by Citi	n/v
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Broad semis basket	–
SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Mega-cap semis weighted	–
PSI	Invesco Semiconductors ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Equal-weight-style semis	–
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X	ETF (3x leveraged)	–	n/v	Tactical/leveraged	–

THEME 2: Agentic AI Platforms & Agent-Commerce Winners:

Ticker	Company Name	Sector/Industry	Market Cap	YTD Return	Key Catalyst	Analyst Consensus
META	Meta Platforms, Inc.	Comm Services – Interactive Media	~$1.9T	~+14%	Muse is the #1 app; Truist sees ~$28.5B in revenue by 2030	Buy; recent PTs $750–$860
MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	Software – Cloud/Copilot	~$3.8T	~+7%	Stifel upgrade; Copilot at ~30M seats	Buy; Stifel PT $575
SHOP	Shopify Inc.	Software – E-commerce/Payments	~$185B	~−10%	Muse checkout via Shop Pay; Stifel sees a Q4–2027 boost	Buy; ~$173
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc. (Class A)	Comm Services – Search/Cloud	~$4.2T	~+10%	Gemini agents; Googlebook launch	n/v
AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	Consumer Disc./Cloud (AWS)	~$2.7T	~+8%	AWS benefits, but Amazon blocked Muse on its store (mixed)	n/v
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	Software – Cloud Infrastructure	~$390B	~−30%	Trending; cloud capacity for agents; laggard that could rebound	n/v
TWLO	Twilio Inc.	Software – Communications APIs	n/v	n/v	Morgan Stanley: agents increase messaging volumes	n/v
NET	Cloudflare, Inc.	Software – Edge/Security	n/v	n/v	Managing and securing agent web traffic	n/v
PLTR	Palantir Technologies Inc.	Software – AI Platforms	n/v	n/v	AIP enterprise agents	n/v
NOW	ServiceNow, Inc.	Software – Workflow	n/v	n/v	Enterprise agent workflows	n/v
CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	Software – CRM	n/v	n/v	Agentforce adoption	n/v
SNOW	Snowflake Inc.	Software – Data Cloud	n/v	n/v	Data layer that agents query	n/v
DDOG	Datadog, Inc.	Software – Observability	n/v	n/v	Monitoring of AI agents	n/v
OKTA	Okta, Inc.	Software – Identity	n/v	n/v	Agent identity and authorisation	n/v
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.	Entertainment – Ticketing	n/v	n/v	Ticketmaster is a Muse launch partner	n/v
MAGS	Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF	ETF	–	~+10%	Mega-cap AI platforms	–
XLC	Communication Services Select Sector SPDR	ETF	–	n/v	META/GOOGL heavy	–
IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Software rebound	–
AIQ	Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF	ETF	–	n/v	Broad AI	–

What type of market are we in: Choppy

Are breakouts working: No

Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No

Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively

Should I be trading: Not for my style of trading unless an exceptional CAT

Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): None at the moment

Last Updated on September 29, 2026 by PeteStilgoe