Overall market trend: Bullish phase – day 12
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -42
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 16
52 week highs (US common stocks): 221
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: No trend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: Downtrend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: No trend
2%+ sectors yesterday:
- None
2%- sectors yesterday:
- $SMH -4.09%
- $XTL -2.50%
- $X;K -2.47%
- $TAN -2.06%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLE $IBB
- Lagging – $XLU $XLP
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $IGV $HACK
- Lagging – $IYT $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 64k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | GPU / AI Chips | ~$5.2T | +13.7% | Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B | STR BUYPT $301 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | GPU / AI Chips | ~$380B | +141.8% | Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment | STR BUYPT est. $250+ |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Custom AI Silicon | ~$1.6T | +~12% | AI semi rev Q2 $10.8B (+143%); Q3 guide $16B (+200%); Samsung $200B MOU | STR BUYPT $527 |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp. | AI Cloud / Enterprise | ~$2.8T | -20.7% | Azure +40%; AI run rate $37B; RPO $627B; 90% probability of Q2 beat | BUYPT $557 |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | AI Platform / Gov | ~$270B | -27% | Q2 earnings Aug 3; est. rev $1.81B (+81%); 8 consecutive EPS beats; DIA contract | BUYPT $181 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave Inc. | AI Cloud / Neocloud | ~$30B | ~-25% | Truist Buy upgrade; Leidos defense cloud deal; Meta $21B GPU contract; earnings Aug 11 | BUYPT $140 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Data Center Infra | ~$100B | +71% | Q1 rev +30%; Americas organic +44%; backlog $15B; book-to-bill 2.9x | STR BUYPT $377 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp. | Power Infrastructure | ~$165B | +29% | Purest electrical infra play; switchgear/thermal mgmt; Q2 earnings data center order watch | BUYPT $480+ |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | Power Generation | ~$438B | +53.3% | Power Gen +41% YoY; record backlog; data center gensets; Q1 EPS beat 19% | HOLD/BUYPT $962 |
| ORCL | Oracle Corp. | AI Cloud / Database | ~$380B | ~flat | Google Gemini integration; AI cloud rev growth; Piper Sandler cloud upside call | BUYPT est. $170+ |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom Networking Chips | ~$80B | +est. +60% | AI networking silicon; custom ASIC design for hyperscalers; data center growth | BUYPT est. $100+ |
| INTC | Intel Corp. | Semiconductor / Foundry | ~$150B | +226% | Foundry recovery; AI chip ramp; massive YTD momentum; Q2 earnings watch | HOLDPT est. $35+ |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | Nuclear / Data Ctr Power | ~$85B | +est. +50% | Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers | BUYPT est. $270+ |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | AI Server Systems | ~$30B | +est. +80% | GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind | BUYPT est. $60+ |
| NET | Cloudflare Inc. | AI Edge / Security | ~$90B | ~+est. | Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion | BUYPT est. $300+ |
| ⬦ Theme ETFs | ||||||
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | Semiconductor Basket | — | +85.7% | Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL | — |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | AI Cloud Basket | — | ~flat | CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names | — |
| VPN | Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra | Data Center REIT | — | — | Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: Selectively
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Selectively
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: A big sell off yesterday due to rate concerns and US paying the most amount paid to borrow money, many charts need to repair yesterdays damage, some still look good but need to see if this is a blip or something bigger.
EP9 is main focus with strong cat.
Todays watchlist (stocks setting up): Symbols from TC2000
$DRAM
$SPCX
$AAPL
$RKLB
$CRCL
$BMNR
$RDW
$BB
Last Updated on August 19, 2026 by PeteStilgoe