Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 1
Fridays market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -14
Stocks above 40PMA: 48
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 313
Seasonality: August in a midterm year tends to be choppy/flat-to-negative August, elevated volatility running into the fall, with the worst of the pullback tending to resolve before year-end — followed by the strongest 12 months of the whole four-year cycle in the year after the midterm.
There’s also a well-known pattern (cited by Carson Investment Research and others) that the deeper drawdowns typical of midterm years often bottom out around August, ahead of a rally into and after the election.
Indices:
$SOXX Downtrend
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: No trend
$IWM: Downtrend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors Friday:
- $XLY +3.29%
- $RTH +2.96%
- $XTL +1.57%
- $IGV +1.36%
- $HACK +1.20%
- $XLE +1.00%
1%- sectors Friday:
- $XLB -2.34%
- $IBB -1.87%
- $JETS -1.26%
- $TAN -1.02%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLF $XLE
- Lagging – $XLK $XLI
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $RTH $IGV
- Lagging – $SMH $TAN
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 62k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Infrastructure
Cloud Computing
Semiconductors
Software
Top thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | GPU / AI Chips | ~$5.2T | +13.7% | Q1 FY27 rev $81.6B (+85%); Data Center +92% YoY; Q2 guide $91B | STR BUYPT $301 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | GPU / AI Chips | ~$380B | +141.8% | Q2 earnings Aug 4; rev est. $11.2B (+46%); $5B Anthropic investment | STR BUYPT est. $250+ |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Custom AI Silicon | ~$1.6T | +~12% | AI semi rev Q2 $10.8B (+143%); Q3 guide $16B (+200%); Samsung $200B MOU | STR BUYPT $527 |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp. | AI Cloud / Enterprise | ~$2.8T | -20.7% | Azure +40%; AI run rate $37B; RPO $627B; 90% probability of Q2 beat | BUYPT $557 |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | AI Platform / Gov | ~$270B | -27% | Q2 earnings Aug 3; est. rev $1.81B (+81%); 8 consecutive EPS beats; DIA contract | BUYPT $181 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave Inc. | AI Cloud / Neocloud | ~$30B | ~-25% | Truist Buy upgrade; Leidos defense cloud deal; Meta $21B GPU contract; earnings Aug 11 | BUYPT $140 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Data Center Infra | ~$100B | +71% | Q1 rev +30%; Americas organic +44%; backlog $15B; book-to-bill 2.9x | STR BUYPT $377 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp. | Power Infrastructure | ~$165B | +29% | Purest electrical infra play; switchgear/thermal mgmt; Q2 earnings data center order watch | BUYPT $480+ |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | Power Generation | ~$438B | +53.3% | Power Gen +41% YoY; record backlog; data center gensets; Q1 EPS beat 19% | HOLD/BUYPT $962 |
| ORCL | Oracle Corp. | AI Cloud / Database | ~$380B | ~flat | Google Gemini integration; AI cloud rev growth; Piper Sandler cloud upside call | BUYPT est. $170+ |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom Networking Chips | ~$80B | +est. +60% | AI networking silicon; custom ASIC design for hyperscalers; data center growth | BUYPT est. $100+ |
| INTC | Intel Corp. | Semiconductor / Foundry | ~$150B | +226% | Foundry recovery; AI chip ramp; massive YTD momentum; Q2 earnings watch | HOLDPT est. $35+ |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | Nuclear / Data Ctr Power | ~$85B | +est. +50% | Data centers projected 12% of US power by 2028; nuclear PPA deals with hyperscalers | BUYPT est. $270+ |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | AI Server Systems | ~$30B | +est. +80% | GPU server demand; NVIDIA rack integration; audit resolution tailwind | BUYPT est. $60+ |
| NET | Cloudflare Inc. | AI Edge / Security | ~$90B | ~+est. | Scotiabank upgrade; AI inference edge delivery; enterprise AI platform expansion | BUYPT est. $300+ |
| ⬦ Theme ETFs | ||||||
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | Semiconductor Basket | — | +85.7% | Broadest semi exposure; includes NVDA, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL | — |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | AI Cloud Basket | — | ~flat | CRWV, NET, ORCL, SNOW; concentrated in AI infra names | — |
| VPN | Global X Data Center REITs & Digital Infra | Data Center REIT | — | — | Targets data center REITs and digital infrastructure operators | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: Choppy conditions remain with very few setups for my style of trading. Focus EP9 millions and WSS.
Todays watchlist: $VRT $PSN $TDOC all possible WSS
Last Updated on August 3, 2026 by PeteStilgoe