Overall market trend: Bearish phase – day 1
Yesterdays market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -28
Stocks above 40PMA: 51
VIX: 17
52 week highs (US common stocks): 205
Seasonality: July in a midterm year tends to be choppy-to-soft rather than the seasonally strong July you’d see in other cycle years — it’s typically still inside the corrective phase, with the actual bottom more often forming in the August–October window, just ahead of the midterm elections themselves.
Indices:
$SOXX No trend
$QQQ: Downtrend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: Downtrend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Uptrend
$SQQQ: Downtrend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: Downtrend
$GLD: No trend
$SLV: No trend
$SLX: Uptrend
1%+ sectors yesterday:
- $XLU +2.25%
- $XLB +1.44%
- $XLE +1.20%
1%- sectors yesterday:
- $IGV -3.05%
- $HACK -1.72%
- $JETS -1.34%
- $IBB -1.22%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $IBB $XLE
- Lagging – $XLY $XLK
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $HACK $KRE
- Lagging – $TAN $SMH
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 66k ish
Themes:
Cybersecurity
Biotech
Cloud Computing
Software
Memory
Top 15 + 15 thematic stocks:
AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Chips, Memory & Power
| Ticker | Company | Sector/Industry | Mkt Cap | YTD Ret. | Key Catalyst | Analyst View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors — AI GPUs | $3.4T | +13% | Blackwell ramp; $81.6B Q1 rev; Rubin platform late-2026 | Strong Buy | PT ~$255 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductors — AI GPUs | $328B | +130% | MI400/450 ramp; $60B Meta MI400 deal; OpenAI 5-yr MI450 contract | Buy | PT ~$250 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors — Networking/ASICs | $1.1T | +8% | Custom AI ASIC wins; AI revenue doubling; 10th Gen XPUC | Strong Buy | PT ~$310 |
| MU | Micron Technology | Memory — HBM/DRAM/NAND | $1T+ | +700% (12mo) | Q4 FY26 guidance $50B (~20% beat); HBM3E market leader (ex-SKH) | Buy | PT ~$1,400 |
| SKHYV | SK Hynix (ADR) | Memory — HBM Leader | $1.3T | IPO 7/10 | Nasdaq debut; 56.4% HBM market share; Q1 rev +198% YoY | Strong Buy | PT ~$180 |
| SNDK | SanDisk Corp | Memory — NAND/SSD | Large | +2,200% (since IPO) | AI storage demand; WDC spinoff trades at <1× future EPS at IPO | Buy consensus |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Semicon Equipment — EUV Lithography | ~$375B | +38% est. | Q2 2026 earnings this week; EUV backlog capacity constrained | Buy | PT ~$1,100 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Semicon Equipment | ~$200B | +25% est. | Gate-all-around demand; HBM stack deposition | Buy | PT ~$260 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Semicon Equipment — Etch/Deposition | ~$130B | +30% est. | HBM layer etch intensity; NAND recovery cycle | Buy | PT ~$1,150 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Networking/Custom Silicon | ~$90B | +40% est. | AI interconnect; custom ASIC design wins at hyperscalers | Buy | PT ~$105 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | AI Power Infrastructure — Gas Turbines | ~$130B | +60%+ | 110 GW gas turbine backlog by YE26; raised ’26 revenue to $44.5-45.5B | Buy | PT ~$1,212 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Data Center Power/Cooling | ~$45B | +106% | Q1 rev +30% YoY; data center cooling surge; 34%+ EPS growth | Mod. Buy | PT ~$326 |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc | Industrials — Prime Power Gensets | ~$491B | +81% | Power Gen rev +41% YoY; $2.82B Q1; largest AI data center genset supplier | Buy | PT ~$1,200 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | Semiconductors — Foundry | ~$1T | +30% est. | Q2 2026 earnings this week; N2 ramp; NVDA/AMD sole-source fab | Buy | PT ~$250 |
| CCJ | Cameco Corp | Uranium Mining | ~$22B | +13% | Q1 EPS beat by 38%; 230M lbs LT contracts; 49% Westinghouse stake | Buy | PT ~$132 |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | ETF — Semiconductor basket | ETF | +70% | Broad chip exposure; 0.35% ER; top-10 includes AMD/AVGO/MU/TSM/NVDA | — |
| PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | ETF — Equal-weight semis | ETF | +104% | Momentum/quality factor tilt; overweight memory/equipment vs SMH | — |
| DRAM | Roundhill Memory ETF | ETF — Memory-focused | ETF | High | SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk concentrated play on HBM cycle | — |
What type of market are we in: Choppy
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Should I be trading: EP9 and WSS main focus with a strong CAT, busy week or so with mag7 reporting, AI trade will likely follow what the big tech companies say about CAPEX spending etc.
Last Updated on July 23, 2026 by PeteStilgoe