Overall market trend: Bullish phase – day 40
Fridays market: Money leaving the market – very high selling pressure
TC2000 McClellan: -28
Stocks above 40PMA: 40%
VIX: 22
52 week highs (US common stocks): 264
Seasonality: June is likely to be choppy-to-weak, consistent with the broader H1 softness of a midterm year. Volatility should remain elevated. However, any meaningful June weakness could represent a buying opportunity for traders positioned for the historically strong Q4 midterm rally into November elections. The real pain point seasonality points to is September–October, not June — so June may be more of a sideways grind than a sharp decline.
As always — these are probabilistic patterns, not guarantees. Macro factors (Fed policy, tariff developments, earnings) can and do override seasonal tendencies.
Indices:
$QQQ: No trend
$SPY: No trend
$DIA: Uptrend
$IWM: No trend
$BTC: Downtrend
$SQQQ: No trend
$UVIX: No trend
$TLT: No trend
$GLD: Downtrend
$SLV: Downtrend
$SLX: No trend
1%+ sectors Friday:
- $XLP +1.71%
1%- sectors Friday:
- $SMH -9.22%
- $TAN -9.07%
- $XLK -6.66%
- $XTL -5.71%
- $IGV -4.21%
- $HACK -3.80%
- $XLY -2.05%
- $XLB -1.92%
- $XLE -1.84%
- $IBB -1.74%
- $XLI -1.12%
Main sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $XLK $XLV
- Lagging – $XLU $XLE
Sub sectors monthly trailing:
- Leading – $HACK $SMH
- Lagging – $TLT $RTH
Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 60k ish
Themes:
| Generative AI |
| Semiconductors |
| Cyber security |
| Broad Tech |
| Space |
| Cloud Computing |
| Solar |
| Clean Energy |
| Software |
| Memory |
| Cybersecurity |
Top 15 thematic stocks:
| Ticker | Company | Sector / Industry | Mkt Cap | YTD Return | Key Catalyst | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia Corp. | Semis — GPU / AI Accelerators | ~$8T | +38% | Blackwell ramp; Jensen “next trillion-dollar co.” call on MRVL; Vera Rubin roadmap | Strong Buy ~$265 PT |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Semis — Custom ASIC / Networking | ~$2.3T | +40% | Q2 beat: AI rev $10.8B (+143% YoY); Q3 guided $16B AI rev; $56B FY26 target | Buy ~$520 PT |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc. | Semis — Custom Silicon / Networking | ~$750B | +141% | Jensen Huang called it “next trillion-dollar co.” at Computex; custom XPU ramps | Strong Buy ~$140 PT |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semis — GPU / Data Center CPU | ~$450B | +22% | MI350X ramp; enterprise AI expansion; cloud CPU share gains vs Intel | Buy ~$220 PT |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. | Semis — Foundry (2nm / 3nm) | ~$1.1T | +28% | Bernstein PT raised $351→$430; sole 2nm/3nm supplier for NVDA, AVGO, MRVL | Strong Buy ~$430 PT |
| ANET | Arista Networks | Networking — AI Cluster Ethernet | ~$180B | +30% | Q1 2026: net sales +30% YoY; organic growth +23%; AI cluster backend networking | Buy ~$460 PT |
| MU | Micron Technology | Semis — HBM3E / DRAM / NAND | ~$280B | +18% | HBM3E capacity sold out through 2026; net income projected $66.8B in 2026 | Buy ~$165 PT |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Data Center Infra — Cooling / Power | ~$60B | +45% | Q1 organic orders +81% YoY; $15B backlog; S&P 500 addition; NVDA co-dev deal | Buy ~$160 PT |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power Infrastructure — Grid / Electrical | ~$110B | +178% | $2.4B Q1 data center electrification orders; book-to-bill ~2.5; grid backlog surge | Buy ~$600 PT |
| ETN | Eaton Corp. | Power Mgmt — Electrical Systems | ~$150B | +22% | Electrical Americas backlog +48%; transformer lead times >2 years; data center infra | Buy ~$410 PT |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | Utilities — Nuclear Baseload AI Power | ~$90B | +25% | Calpine acquisition closed Jan 2026; PPAs with Microsoft, Meta; Three Mile Island restart | Buy ~$330 PT |
| CRWV | CoreWeave Inc. | Cloud — GPU-as-a-Service | ~$130B | IPO 2026 | Recent IPO; largest independent GPU cloud; hyperscaler overflow demand beneficiary | Buy ~$65 PT |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | AI Software — Government / Enterprise | ~$380B | +55% | AIP adoption acceleration; DoD AI contract wins; enterprise AIP platform expansion | Hold/Buy ~$120 PT |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | AI Servers — Liquid Cooled Rack Scale | ~$20B | -30% | NVDA Vera Rubin NVL72 platform; $2B Gorilla Tech deal; Helios platform launch | Hold ~$38 PT |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Semis — Wafer Fab Equipment | ~$110B | +15% | HBM capacity buildout driving etch/deposition tool spend; DRAM cycle tailwind | Buy ~$1,050 PT |
Are breakouts working: No
Are breakouts likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: No
Are breakdowns likely to work for the next 3 – 5 days: Probably but need to setup after such a big move down
Should I be trading: WSS short only from proper setups which will take a few days, Friday was a 4% bearish 800+ day, look for a 4% bullish 800+ day in the next 2 – 4 weeks before considering anything long.
Stock goat 