SA 04/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: Money entering the market – Very high buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 74

Stocks above 40PMA: 53%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $IYT +2.53%
  • $KRE +2.08%
  • $XLE +1.87%
  • $IBB +1.78%
  • $JETS +1.76%
  • $SMH +1.37%
  • $XLF +1.34%
  • $HACK +1.27%
  • $XTL +1.25%
  • $XLY +1.08%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $TAN $HACK

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 93k ish

Themes: Metals, Semis, Transports, Energy

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs

Are breakdowns likely to work: Maybe

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & EP’s only

SA 03/12/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money leaving the market – normal selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 37

Stocks above 40PMA: 48%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH +1.83%
  • $JETS +1.72%
  • $XTL +1.15%
  • $XLK +1.03%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLE -1.29%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $TLT $HACK

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 93k ish

Themes: Metals

Are breakouts likely to work: Feels like choppy rangebound market

Are breakdowns likely to work: As above

Should I be trading: High quality EP’s only

SA 02/12/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 61

Stocks above 40PMA: 49%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $KRE +1.10%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $TAN -2.60%
  • $XLU -2.34%
  • $IBB -2.14%
  • $XTL -1.50%
  • $XLI -1.46%
  • $HACK -1.43%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLI

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $SMH $HACK

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 87k ish

Themes: Metals

Are breakouts likely to work: Feels like choppy rangebound market

Are breakdowns likely to work: As above

Should I be trading: High quality EP’s only

SA 26/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Bullish zone 95

Stocks above 40PMA: 49%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH +2.26%
  • $JETS +2.14%
  • $TAN +1.74%
  • $XTL+1.48%
  • $IYT+1.39%
  • $XLU +1.33%
  • $XLK +1.18%
  • $XLP +1.09%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLY

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $SMH $HACK

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 91k ish

Themes: Biotech, Healthcare, Quality earnings

Are breakouts likely to work: Yes although 4 day rally so due a pause

Are breakdowns likely to work: No

Should I be trading: Yes but cautionary after 4 day rally. EP9s with quality CATs. $SPY & $QQQ back above 50sma.

SA 25/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral zone 65

Stocks above 40PMA: 46%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $KRE +2.84%
  • $JETS +2.80%
  • $XLV +2.26%
  • $RTH+2.17%
  • $XLY +2.14%
  • $IYT +1.81%
  • $HACK +1.80%
  • $IBB +1.54%
  • $XLB +1.49%
  • $XLP +1.38%
  • $TAN +1.33%
  • $XLI +1.28%
  • $XTL +1.26%
  • $XLF +1.25%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $IYT
  • Lagging – $SMH $HACK

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 88k ish

Themes: Biotech, Healthcare, Quality earnings

Are breakouts likely to work: CATs

Are breakdowns likely to work: No

Should I be trading: Yes but cautionary after 3 day rally. EP9s with quality CATs. $SPY & $QQQ back above 50sma.

SA 24/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money entering the market – high buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral zone -2

Stocks above 40PMA: 37%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $XTL +4.70%
  • $SMH +3.98%
  • $XLK +2.38%
  • $JETS +2.04%
  • $HACK +1.76%
  • $XLY +1.33%
  • $IBB +1.31%
  • $XLU +1.13%
  • $TAN +1.13%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLP -1.16%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $SMH

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 88k ish

Themes: Biotech, Healthcare

Are breakouts likely to work: Maybe

Are breakdowns likely to work: Maybe

Should I be trading: Markets followed through from Fridays bullish day no need to rush any new trades will let them come to me as market sorts itself out.

SA 21/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money entering the market – very high buying pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -18

Stocks above 40PMA: 35%

Seasonality: Typically strong but very weak currently

1%+ sectors Friday:

  • $JETS +3.51%
  • $KRE +3.39%
  • $IYT +2.77%
  • $XLB +2.24%
  • $XTL +2.12%
  • $XLV +2.11%
  • $IBB +2.00%
  • $XLY +1.96%
  • $RTH +1.75%
  • $XLI +1.22%
  • $XLF +1.10%
  • $XLP +1.09%

1%- sectors Friday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $TAN $KRE
  • Lagging – $HACK $SMH

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 86k ish

Themes: Biotech, Healthcare

Are breakouts likely to work: No

Are breakdowns likely to work: Maybe

Should I be trading: Markets put in a bullish day Friday so bounce may continue of a few days so will be keeping an eye on Sugababy reversals.

SA 20/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money leaving the market – very high selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Oversold zone -101

Stocks above 40PMA: 25%

Seasonality: Typically strong but very weak currently

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • None

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XTL -4.64%
  • $SMH -4.22%
  • $TAN -4.12%
  • $XLK -3.14%
  • $IYT -2.28%
  • $HACK -2.19%
  • $XLI -1.68%
  • $JETS -1.54%
  • $XLB -1.49%
  • $XLY -1.49%
  • $XLE -1.13%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLK

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $TAN $KRE
  • Lagging – $HACK $JETS

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 84k ish

Themes: Biotech, Healthcare

Are breakouts likely to work: No

Are breakdowns likely to work: Yes

Should I be trading: No, good $NVDA earnings caused markets to rise early but then quickly sold off to form outside bearish days in the indices.

SA 19/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Neutral

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -66

Stocks above 40PMA: 29%

Seasonality: Typically strong but very weak currently

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH +1.85%
  • $KRE +1.06%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLE -1.30%
  • $TAN -1.24%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLP

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $TAN $KRE
  • Lagging – $HACK $JETS

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 92k ish

Themes: Quality earnings, Metals, Semis, Memory

Are breakouts likely to work: No

Are breakdowns likely to work: Breaking down from flags

Should I be trading: No, will see how the markets react to the positive $NVDA earnings, will be a good tell as to where we are.

SA 18/11/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Neutral

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -57

Stocks above 40PMA: 30%

Seasonality: Typically strong but very weak

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • None

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH -2.06%
  • $XLY -1.85%
  • $RTH -1.70%
  • $XLK -1.63%
  • $TAN -1.11%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLP

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $TAN $KRE
  • Lagging – $HACK $JETS

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 92k ish

Themes: Quality earnings, Metals, Semis, Memory

Are breakouts likely to work: No

Are breakdowns likely to work: Breaking down from flags

Should I be trading: No, main indices under 50sma breadth weak