Author: PeteStilgoe

SA 19/12/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money leaving the market – normal buying selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -5

Stocks above 40PMA: 50%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH +2.36%
  • $TAN +2.29%
  • $XTL +2.01%
  • $XLK +1.54%
  • $XLY +1.51%
  • $HACK +1.34%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLE -1.45%
  • $XLY -1.16%
  • $TAN -1.13%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $XLF $XLY
  • Lagging – $XLE $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $TLT

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 88k ish

Themes: Metals, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Financials, Regional banks

Are breakouts likely to work: No

Are breakdowns likely to work: Scalps

Should I be trading: No just chop not my style

SA 18/12/2025

Overall market: Bearish phase

Short term market: Money leaving the market – high selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -6

Stocks above 40PMA: 50%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $XLE +2.21%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH -3.61%
  • $XTL -3.24%
  • $XLK -2.22%
  • $HACK -2.21%
  • $XLI -1.62%
  • $JETS -1.53%
  • $XLY -1.16%
  • $TAN -1.13%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $XLF $XLB
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 87k ish

Themes: Metals, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Financials, Regional banks

Are breakouts likely to work: No

Are breakdowns likely to work: Yes

Should I be trading: Weak structure shorts

SA 17/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: Money leaving the market – normal buying & selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -4

Stocks above 40PMA: 50%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • None

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLE -3.05%
  • $XLV -1.30%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $XLY $XLF
  • Lagging – $XLE $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $TLT

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 86k ish

Themes: Metals, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Financials, Regional banks

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs, EP9

Are breakdowns likely to work: Scalping extended stocks

Should I be trading: Doesnt feel like it just chop

SA 16/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: High selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 31

Stocks above 40PMA: 54%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $XLV +1.32%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XTL -2.33%
  • $HACK -1.87%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLP
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 86k ish

Themes: Metals, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Financials, Regional banks

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs, EP9

Are breakdowns likely to work: Scalping extended stocks

Should I be trading: Doesnt feel like it

SA 15/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: High selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 46

Stocks above 40PMA: 55%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors Friday:

  • None

1%- sectors Friday:

  • $XTL -4.25%
  • $TAN -2.84%
  • $HACK -2.23%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $XLF $XLP
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 90k ish

Themes: Metals, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Financials, Regional banks

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs, EP9

Are breakdowns likely to work: Scalping extended stocks

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & EPs still in choppy phase

SA 12/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: Normal buying selling pressure

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 86

Stocks above 40PMA: 57%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $XTL +2.06%
  • $XLB +1.99%
  • $XLF +1.82%
  • $XTI +1.07%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $HACK $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 92k ish

Themes: Metals, Semis, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Energy, Financials

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs, EP9

Are breakdowns likely to work: No

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & EPs

SA 11/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: High buying pressure – money coming into the market

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 58

Stocks above 40PMA: 53%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $KRE +3.46%
  • $TAN +2.76%
  • $JETS +2.04%
  • $XTL +1.99%
  • $XLB +1.96%
  • $XLI +1.83%
  • $XLY +1.47%
  • $XLV +1.45%
  • $SMH +1.38%
  • $XLF +1.14%
  • $IBB +1.10%
  • $XLE +1.05%
  • $IYT +1.03%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $TLT $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 90k ish

Themes: Metals, Semis, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Energy, Financials

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs

Are breakdowns likely to work: Extended / exhausted, scalps

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & still feels choppy although more back to back buying days

SA 10/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: High buying pressure – money coming into the market

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 14

Stocks above 40PMA: 47%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • None

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $IBB -1.68%
  • $IYT -1.08%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLE
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $TLT $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 93k ish

Themes: Metals, Semis, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Energy, Financials

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs

Are breakdowns likely to work: Extended / exhausted, scalps

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & EP’s only still think in choppy phase and FOMC tonight

SA 09/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: Neutral

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 2

Stocks above 40PMA: 47%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • $SMH +1.13%

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLY -1.45%
  • $XLB -1.38%
  • $XLU -1.34%
  • $XLV -1.19%
  • $XLE -1.09%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLY $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $TLT $TAN

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 90k ish

Themes: Metals, Semis, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Energy

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs

Are breakdowns likely to work: Extended / exhausted, scalps

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & EP’s only still think in choppy phase

SA 08/12/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: Neutral

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral 43

Stocks above 40PMA: 51%

Seasonality: Typically strong

1%+ sectors Friday:

  • $JETS +1.93%

1%- sectors Friday:

  • None

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $IBB $XLV
  • Lagging – $XLK $XLU

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $KRE $JETS
  • Lagging – $TLT $HACK

Bitcoin: Under the 200sma at 92k ish

Themes: Metals, Semis, Bio, Healthcare, Transports, Energy

Are breakouts likely to work: Quality CATs

Are breakdowns likely to work: Extended / exhausted

Should I be trading: High quality 9mil & EP’s only still think in choppy phase