SA 17/09/2025

Overall market: Bullish phase

Short term market: Money coming in

TC2000 McClellan: Neutral -41

Stocks above 40PMA: 55% (-2%)

Seasonality: Weak, September typically weakest of the year, especially 2nd half

1%+ sectors yesterday:

  • none

1%- sectors yesterday:

  • $XLU -1.82%
  • $XTL -1.05%

Main sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $XLY $XLE (no change)
  • Lagging – $XLP $XLU (no change)

Sub sectors monthly trailing:

  • Leading – $TAN $TLT ($JETS replaced by $TLT)
  • Lagging – $JETS $IYT ($RTH replaced by $JETS & $TLT replaced by $IYT)

Are breakouts working: Mixed

Are breakdowns working: Mixed

Should I be trading: FOMC today market likely quiet until the outcome of the meeting. Expected 0.25% interest cut, already priced in so the commentary will probably drive the markets eg. expecting X amount of rate cuts for the rest of 2025.

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